CAC 40: In contact with a resistance zone

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Slowly but surely, the CAC 40 index will have spent its month of August (from the 6th) steadily gaining points, as fears of the American economy, the world’s largest, entering a recession faded. Over the entire past month, the balance sheet is +1.32%, materialized by a monthly hammer candle.

“These procrastinations do not call into question our scenario of a soft landing for the American economy,” according to Emmanuel Auboyneau, Associate Manager of Amplegest.

“The American employment figures published at the beginning of August caused nervousness among operators. The specter of recession was again raised by some economists, who claimed that the Federal Reserve had played with fire by maintaining high rates for too long. Very quickly, the market was reassured by a series of figures on consumption or on activity in general.”

On Friday, inflation figures focused attention. In the United States, the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of price increases, rose 2.6% in July over a year compared with a 2.7% increase expected by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal.

In the eurozone, inflation has slowed. It stood at 2.2% in August compared to 2.6% in July. This also validates the theory of a new rate cut by the European Central Bank in September. The governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, also judged this Friday that it would be “fair and wise” for the institution to lower its rates in September, according to comments relayed by the Reuters agency.

On the value side, Crédit Agricole SA gained 2.57%, the biggest increase in the CAC 40, benefiting from an increase in its buy advice from HSBC.

Spie and Elis gained 3.8% and 2% respectively. The common point between these two very different groups (mechanical engineering on the one hand and industrial laundry on the other) is that JP Morgan resumed monitoring them this Friday with an “overweight” recommendation for each of them.

Air France-KLM gained 4.1%. In a note, Stifel reports that CFO Steven Zaat confirmed that he expects the group’s unit revenue to increase (excluding the impact of the Olympic Games) in the third quarter. This is what the research firm considers “encouraging”.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main stock indices ended Friday’s session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.55%) or the Nasdaq Composite (+1.13%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.01% to 5,648 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1,1040. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite on financial markets, was trading around $73.00.

On the agenda this Monday, to follow as a priority a battery of barometer indicators of activity, in industry in the Eurozone, in final data for the month of August.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

On August 19, the leading French index re-entered its sideways channel between 7,465 and 7,690 points. Since then, it has traced its entire amplitude, before reaching a legitimate oversold zone, below a resistance level. A rebalancing of the forces present is underway in the short term.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

It should be noted that a crossing of 7690.00 points would revive buying tension. While a break of 7465.00 points would revive selling pressure.

Hourly data chart

Daily Data Chart