by Tim Hepher

PARIS (Reuters) – Airbus deliveries are showing a slower pace than expected compared to last year, raising more questions about the planemaker’s ability to meet its new annual target, officials said. analysts and industry sources.

In July, Airbus lowered its profit and delivery forecast for the full year to 770 planes, from 800 previously, due to shortages of engines and other items. The underlying production target has been pushed back a year, to 2027.

Airbus delivered around 30 planes in September, bringing the total number of aircraft delivered since the start of the year to 477, according to data provided to Reuters by consultancy firm Cirium Ascend.

If Airbus continues at this pace, it could end the month with 36 deliveries, or 483 since the start of the year, a result lower than the 488 deliveries made nine months ago.

As of September 2023, Airbus has delivered 55 aircraft.

“The cumulative numbers for 2023 have been very close throughout the year, reinforcing the potentially evolving assumption that they will not reach 770,” said Rob Morris, head of global consulting at Cirium Ascend.

An Airbus spokesperson referred to the group’s forecasts.

Airbus has a history of surprising in the fourth quarter, although supply chains and internal production issues have increasingly weighed on its ability to catch up.

“Given year-to-date performance, there is greater risk to the downside than to the upside,” said Sash Tusa, an analyst at Agency Partners, adding that concerns remained about the acceleration of production beyond 2024.

Airbus said it was aiming for “around” 770 deliveries, meaning the planemaker could count on that margin of tolerance to avoid another reduction in its official forecast, which could be seen as a blow to its senior executives, the company said. analysts.

Airbus produces on average around 50 of its A320neo narrow-body aircraft per month, a figure unchanged from last year based on monitoring of test flights, Rob Morris said.

The recent failure to make significant progress toward a mid-term target of 75 planes per month is significantly increasing internal pressure to conserve cash as Airbus builds up inventory to preserve flexibility, people familiar with the matter said.

In July, Airbus launched an austerity and performance improvement plan as unit costs rose faster than revenues.

(Reporting by Tim Hepher, by Pauline Foret, editing by Kate Entringer)

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