CAC 40: Below 7,700, caution will dominate

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While the week was going to end on a very dull note, against a backdrop of fears of a “no landing” type scenario for the American economy, the CAC 40 took the direction of the increase in the last part of the session, at the opening of Wall Street after the publications of JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and BlackRock came out higher than expectations. This first wave of quarterly copies from the major American banks will have brought its share of relief. The flagship Parisian index, which ended Friday’s session at session highs, gained 0.48% to 7,577 points.

However, this was not a given, given the publication of firm inflation figures the day before. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased by 2.4% in September, at an annualized rate, in the broadest basket of products, where the consensus predicted an increase of 2.3%. Enough to further underline, after the very muscular September employment report, the impressive resilience of the American economy after such long months of high rates.

But on Friday, the PPI (producer price indices), a leading indicator of inflation, appeared less dynamic. standing at 1.8% compared to 1.9% in August. Over one month, prices are stable while analysts feared an increase of 0.1%.

On the values ​​side, Airbus ends the week at the top of the CAC 40 (+3.92% Friday). The aircraft manufacturer says it is maintaining its forecast of 770 aircraft deliveries for the year 2024, according to statements by Christian Scherer, general director of commercial aircraft at Airbus, reported by AFP. Stellantis, on the other hand, fell by 2.8% after indicating that it had reshuffled its staff and noted the retirement of Carlos Tavares at the end of his mandate, i.e. at the start of 2026.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Monday’s session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.97%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.33%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.61% to 5,815 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0920. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $74.10.

On the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow as a priority a series of interventions by members of the Fed.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The nervous oscillations will continue to be concentrated between two major levels, the 7,465 / 7,500 points on the one hand, and the 7,690 / 7,700 points on the other. A quotation band from which an exit would release additional energy. But in the immediate future, contrary movements, in a clear direction, are expected.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7690.00 points.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart