PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise at the opening in a context of rising geopolitical tensions, while investors continue to digest the implications of Donald Trump’s victory.
Futures contracts suggest an opening increase of 0.13% for the Parisian CAC 40, compared to 0.34% for the FTSE in London, 0.18% for the Dax in Frankfurt and 0.21% for the EuroStoxx 50 .
Russia announced Thursday that it had used a new medium-range hypersonic missile in an attack on Ukraine, a shot presented as a warning to Western supporters of Kyiv.
This announcement comes in a context of escalating tensions over the week, while Kyiv used American and British missiles for the first time against targets located in Russian territory, while Moscow subsequently relaxed its doctrine nuclear.
Investors have favored safe haven assets such as gold and the dollar in recent days, while yields on sovereign securities in Germany fell.
European markets are also digesting the implications of Donald Trump’s victory, with the Stoxx 600 still showing a drop of 1.7% since its levels reached just before the announcement of the results on November 6.
“Customs duties of 10% could cost world trade 1.2% between 2025 and 2026, weighing mainly on Europe and emerging economies,” recalls Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier IM.
In the absence of concrete measures, investors are left to guess at the economic trajectories of the United States and the rest of the world next year.
Furthermore, PMI indicators for November are expected on Friday and should confirm the contraction in activity in France and Germany, the two largest economies in the euro zone.
Operators are hesitating between “bearish economic surveys – PMIs in particular – and positive fundamentals (healthy balance sheets in the private sector)”, recalls Michel Martinez, chief European economist at Société Générale CIB.
“As companies are reluctant to lay off staff due to recruitment difficulties, the strength of the labor market limits the risk of a deep recession,” adds the economist.
VALUES TO FOLLOW:
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended up on Thursday, after a seesaw session, with the Dow Jones and the S&P-500 having established themselves at peaks for a week, the day after the publication of the results Nvidia’s quarterly results, better than expectations.
The Dow Jones index gained 1.06%, or 461.88 points, to 43,870.35 points.
The broader S&P-500 gained 31.60 points, or 0.53%, to 5,948.71 points.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.28 points (0.03%) to 18,972.42 points.
Nvidia, the world’s largest market capitalization, gained 0.5% after publishing quarterly results above expectations on Wednesday after the close and said it anticipated better than expected turnover for the current quarter.
IN ASIA
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is progressing, supported by stocks linked to semiconductors which are progressing in the wake of Nvidia. The Nikkei index gained 0.87% to 38,357.42 points. The broader Topix took 0.71% to 2,701.82 points.
Tokyo Electron takes 2.3% and Advantest 1%.
Chinese indices are falling under pressure from Baidu, the search engine, and Pinduoduo, the online sales group which published results considered disappointing. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index declined by 1.75%, the Shanghai SSE Composite by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.94%.
RATE
Treasury yields are eroding in a context of risk aversion, but remain close to their highest since July.
The yield on the ten-year Treasury declined by 2.2 bps to 4.41%, while the yield on the two-year security fell by 1.2 bps to 4.3366%.
CHANGES
The dollar hits a 13-month high against the euro, as geopolitical tensions push investors towards safe haven assets.
The dollar gained 0.17% against a basket of reference currencies, the euro eroded by 0.07% to 1.0466 dollars, and the pound sterling lost 0.14% to 1.2569 dollars.
In Asia, the yen declined by 0.21% to 154.83 yen per dollar, the Australian dollar lost 0.34% to 0.6489 dollars.
OIL
The barrel is hesitating, supported by geopolitical tensions but under pressure from rising oil stocks in the United States, which suggest that demand is slowing in the world’s largest economy.
Brent rose by 0.09% to $74.3 per barrel, American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose by 0.11% to $70.18.
(Written by Corentin Chappron, edited by)
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