EUR/USD: Major appointment for traders at 2:30 p.m.

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Bover will monitor the “temperature” of the American 10 years (Treasuries 10 Years) At the beginning of the afternoon, following the publication of the highly anticipated federal report on private employment, the famous NFP (non-Farm Payrolls).

Here are the main elements of consensus of the report: unemployment is expected stable at 4.1% of the active population, the number of job creations in the private sector outside agriculture at 169,000, and the monthly increase in wages contained at +0 , 3%. Meet at 2:30 p.m. for the verdict. Knowing that all the data published throughout the week have only strengthened the idea of ​​tensions on the job market across the Atlantic: JOLTS job offers, ADP survey or registration for unemployment benefits.

Alexandre Baradez (IG France) makes the following recall: “PCE inflation, Fed’s favorite inflation measure, that which it uses in its quarterly projections, still came to 2.8% a few days ago, marking a Sixth consecutive month without new progress towards the target target of the Fed. , the absence of progress was obviously noticed by the Fed, which justified the change of speech of Jerome Powell in December but also in January, with a change in elements of language concerning inflation and employment in the Last press release from the Fed on Wednesday. “

It is therefore this inflation / employment diptych that will be at the heart of the burial’s reflection this Friday.

The market naturally continues to assess, moreover, the consequences of exchanges to say the least, between China and the United States on customs surcharges. President Donald Trump signed a decree establishing customs from 10% on Chinese imports on Saturday. This without too much surprise provoked the ire of Beijing which replied by establishing customs surcharges on imports of liquefied natural gas and American coal. New twist Wednesday: US postal services announced on Tuesday that they would no longer accept “until further notice” packages from China and Hong Kong. The American post then returned to its decision yesterday at the start of the afternoon.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0390 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,0378 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0521 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 377 pips and the risk of loss is 143 pips.

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