CAC 40: Structure in Harami, under the 8,000 symbolic points

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The CAC40 index will have capped under the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday, penalized by L’Oréal (-3.54%) and luxury in general, and while Wall Street was rebuilt in the red after the publication of a report on the ‘use of great firmness.

The cosmetics group has released 2.5% growth in the last quarter of 2024 in comparable data, clearly below analysts forecasts, penalized by disappointing performance in the “luxury” category but also in North America. The profitability of L’Oréal, however, met expectations.

The worst performance of the flagship index on Friday is however signed Pernod Ricard (-4.69%), which had however shown resistance immediately after the publication of its quarterly. The group of spirits has revised its turnover objectives for its year ended at the end of June and in the medium term, citing a more complex economic and geopolitical environment.

As for the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report on American employment health in the private sector, it structured the second part of the session on its own. This health is good, no one doubted. The stake was elsewhere, it was a question of gauging the worsening, or not, of the state of tension on the job market, tensions generating inflation.

This report is rather contrasting, because if the job creations (excluding agriculture) stand out at 143,000, a little below expectations, the increase in average hourly wages (+0.5%) challenges, especially as the target defined by consensus was +0.3%. Finally, the unemployment rate, expected stable to 4.1% of the active population, drops to 4.0%.

“Overall, the underlying figures are more solid than suggests disappointment on hiring, and the labor market seems to have gained dynamism towards the end of 2024 and at the beginning of 2025. Strong revisions up Population estimates are probably due to immigration in 2024, which, combined with increased wage pressures, could constitute a restrictive signal for the Fed. New wage increases, “lights up Christian Scherrmann, chief economist of the United States for DWS.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.99%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-1.36%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, depreciated from 0.95% to 6,025 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0320. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 71.40.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow in priority the index felt of investors in the euro zone at 10:30 am, as well as an intervention by C. Lagarde, president of the ECB, before the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday 24 and 31/01 and reflected on Monday 27/01 and 03/02. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap. The real test in progress is that of the 8,000 points.

The construction of a lowered harami on Friday 07/02 obeys the chances of rapid and sustainable crossing of the 8,000 points. This will take sufficient breathtaking.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics