EUR/USD: a series of American statistics in expectations

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The dollar, while remaining very firm against the euro, saw its momentum braked by a series of disappointing economic statistics (U-Mich of households, retail sales, activity barometers in services). Last indicator to ask questions, dated Tuesday: the sacrosanct index of consumer confidence within the meaning of the Conference Board, who missed expectations by reappearing below the 100 points. Enough to ask the question of a possible influenza in health, still flourishing at this stage, of the American economy.

“Friday, it is the strong downward revision of the American consumer confidence index (measured by the University of Michigan and released at 64.7 against 67.8 during the first publication) which raised new questions. is the lowest confidence index since November 2023, “notes Alexandre Baradez (IG France).

“And in this same study, it also appears that the anticipation of long-term inflation of American consumers has jumped at its highest level since … 1995!”

In addition, operators continue to monitor Ukraine, while the French president, e Macron, is traveling in Washington to try to replace Europe in diplomatic game, in this case that of peace negotiations in Ukraine , or failing that a ceasefire or a truce in the fights. “I think she [une trêve] could be concluded in the coming weeks, “said the French president, in an interview on Foxnews.

THE Treasuries 10 years mechanically reflected at a level close to 4.30%.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow in priority sales of new housing in the United States at 4:00 p.m., as well as crude stocks at 4:30 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against approximately $ 1,0490.

Key graphics elements

The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,0495 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0611 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 494 pips and the risk of loss is 116 pips.

Daily data graphics