EUR/USD: very high increase in the feelix index

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The euro confirmed its reaction to the dollar, after a week rich in major events, including a council of the Governors of the ECB which ended without surprise, with a drop of 25 basis points of the main guiding rate, with a subtle, but real trip, from the cursor to the “Hawkish” mode.

“Although uncertainty remains high, balance has changed considerably in recent days. We anticipate an acceleration of growth in the euro zone as well as slowdown in the disinflation process. All these elements greatly reduce the room for maneuver for new rate drops in the coming month,” comments Ulrike Kastens, senior Europe DWS economist.

In addition, “this week’s European budgetary announcements should lay the foundations for stronger growth and higher inflation, the decision of the ECB […] Probably being the penultimate decreases, “anticipate nomura economists.

Bond yields, in particular Germans, have mechanically heated, after the announcement of a common desire for the parties brought to govern, to break the budget gold rule, to inject several hundred billions of euros into infrastructure projects, and massive investments in defense. A paradigm shift that directly affects the pair of Euro / dollar currencies, while at the same time, doubts about a possible inflection point in the American economy settled in the minds of the trades.

Asked, this weekend, on the possibility of a stronger recession or inflation which would be caused by customs surcharges, Donald Trump did not respond clearly. The American president simply spoke of “a transition period”. His trade secretary, Scott Bessent, spoke to him “adjustments” and an American economy which could know a little. The latest NFP (non-Farm Payrolls), without being catastrophic, campaigned in this sense, as well as recent publications that have made market rooms: PMI Services, U-Mich of consumer confidence.

“By demagogy, by populism, the American president risks plunging his country into recession, a height! Let the United States face an important trade deficit, 920 billion dollars in 2024, is obvious. That this deficit is the consequence of dubious commercial practices, without a doubt. But the use of protectionism is a real absurdity for a country dominates all the major sectors and Quart of the world’s GDP “, in the words of Philippe Crevel, in his latest editorial of the Circle of the Savings.

In the statistical chapter, the big meeting on Friday was the monthly report on private employment (excluding agriculture). The unemployment rate increased slightly, at 4.1% of the active population, where consensus increased stagnation to 4.0%. The number of job creations are lacking, with little, expectations, just over 150,000. Ras, however, concerning the increase in average time wages at +0.3%. In the immediate future, investors have just taken note of the index felt of investors in the euro zone, in very strong increase, beyond expectations, at -2.9.

“This week, market attention will focus on American inflation with the publication of data for the month of February,” warns Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM. “It is absolutely necessary good news, especially after the surprise increase of 0.4% over a month in January production prices. In terms of consumer prices, it is necessary to expect the price of eggs, which is a historic record due to avian flu, continues to lead statistics.”

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0830 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The crossing in significant volatility of $ 1,0608 changes the situation on the configuration of the currency pair, which has just validated a resumption of support on a long mobile average, at 50 days (in orange), which begins a resource figure. The scenario of a fast melting towards the perfect parity (€ 1 = $ 1) is invalidated.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,0758 USD and the resistance to USD 1,1012.

Daily data graphics