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Not without nervousness, the CAC 40 continues to navigate around the pivot threshold of 8,000 points (+0.57% to 8,073 points on Monday). This navigation is made difficult by a lesser visibility, naturally due to the geopolitical situation, the procrastination of D Trump on customs duties, a possible inflection point of the American economy, and questions about the trajectory of China.
On the first point, the geopolitical framework, it is today the chief of the White House must speak with his counterpart in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, on the conditions, if necessary, a truce of the fights against the Ukrainian aggressive. This weekend, Donald Trump explained to the journalists present in Air Force One that “a lot of work was done during the weekend”, while a 30-day truce plan was proposed and validated by the Americans and the Ukrainians. He also spoke of “sharing of certain assets”, evoking “lands” and “electric factories”. The Russians are demanding “concrete security guarantees” to carry out this truce.
Latest development on this commercial component, Donald Trump, threatened to tax, imports of spirits 200%. On its social network Truth Social, the tenant of the White House referred to “villains of customs rights of 50% on whiskeys” set up by the European Union. Recall that in reaction to customs duties of 25% set up by the United States on imports of steel and aluminum from all over the world, both the European Union and China and Canada have announced retaliatory measures. Donald Trump himself indicated that he would in turn retaliate, by putting customs duties that could “be a little more than reciprocal” on April 4.
According to Asteres, “Donald Trump’s threat to impose 200 % customs duties on European alcoholic beverages is particularly worrying for France, and indicates that we have entered the trade spiral. This threat, if it was implemented, would particularly target France which represents about half of European exports of alcoholic drinks to the United States. About 10 % of French drinks Sold in the United States according to Asterès estimates, which represents a high risk for the entire sector “.
“The threat of Donald Trump also indicates that we have entered the harmful gear of the trade war, or a customs right responds to another. Not responding to American customs duties by European customs duties would not have been a sign of weakness but of composure, since the latter harm them as much in the country which establishes them as in the targeted country.”
Finally, the inflection signals of the health of the American economy, although very strong, multiply. Although somewhat passed under radars on Friday, the publication of the household confidence U-Mich indicator was clearly emerged in the expectations of preliminary data for March, after having disappointed strongly, already for the month of February. Over a year, the index plunged by more than 27%. “Many consumers have cited the high level of uncertainty surrounding policies and other economic factors; frequent fluctuations in economic policies make consumers to plan the future, whatever their political preferences,” said the University of Michigan.
Disappointment yesterday also concerning retail sales ( +0.2% against a target at +0.6%), for the second consecutive month clearly in expectations. However, let us relativize because these sales, excluding cars, equal the target to +0.3% monthly.
An uncertain context that makes Fed’s work all the more complex, which completes a monetary policy committee tomorrow. If a status quo on the rates proper is almost acquired, the elements of language used, as well as the updating of economic forecasts will have passed under the microscope.
“Will Donald Trump continue his brutal approach or on the contrary, in the face of shielding and the first economic consequences of his decisions, will he put water in his wine? When he speaks of a transition phase, accept the prospect of a slowdown, even a recession? All these questions should be addressed during the meeting of the federal reserve”, List Emmanuel Auboyneau upstream of the FOMC.
“The message delivered by Jerome Powell will be interesting to decipher and will give the trend for the future. It should probably remain cautious and reserve all the future room for maneuver. No decision decision should be announced at this meeting.”
In China, the country’s authorities have delivered the main lines of a consumption support plan, which however does not give details on how local governments will implement it, notes Reuters. Measures for tourism incentives and potential crèches grants are for example mentioned. Arrangements “far from a recovery bazooka”, judge Stephen Innes of Spi am.
On the values ​​side, luxury, a sector dependent on China for its growth, has been among the strongest drops in the Parisian index. Kering sold 2.75%, Hermès fell 0.9% while LVMH managed to gain 0.8% at the fence. Veolia Environnement on the other hand, resumed 2%, supported by the entry to the capital of the LAC1 fund piloted by Bpifrance. On the SBF 120, Virbac rebounded by 9%, carried by a recovery of recommendation to the purchase of Stifel.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session on Monday in the green, without shining, like the Dow Jones (+0.85%) or the Nasdaq Composite (+0.31%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.64% to 5,675 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0920. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 67.70. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.30%. As for the VIX, it was worth 20.50 at the last fence of the S & P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority American industrial production at 2:15 p.m.
It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.
Key graphics elements
The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.
Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8260.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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