CAC 40: The 8,000 points, technical justice of the week

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The CAC 40 contracted 0.95% to 8,094 points Thursday, investors integrating the outcome of the meeting of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), which took place on Wednesday evening. As expected, the American central bank maintained its guiding rates unchanged. But the “plots”, that is to say the projections (and not the forecasts) of the Fed members were published. It turns out that the members of the central bank are more pessimistic about American growth as well as for inflation.

“It is therefore not a break or” dovish “or” hawkish “, but a break justified by uncertainty. Rightly so, the Fed has less conviction, but it is aligned with the market on the future orientation of guiding rates. It also expresses greater concern about the slowdown in economic growth and the rise in inflation resulting from the uncertainty linked to government policies” McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine (subsidiary of Franklin Templeton).

These economic anticipations, updated each quarter, were lowered. + 1.7% GDP growth against 2.1%, 2.7% inflation, compared to 2.5% in the last projections and 4.4% unemployment at the end of 2025, against 4.4% of the active population.

“The Fed therefore sails a little in sight, without being able to anticipate in the long term”, for Grégoire Kounowski Investment Advisor at Norman K. “What is likely to irritate Donald Trump. Last night, he again urged the institution to lower his rates while, according to him,” American customs duties are starting to make himself (easily!) Several times criticized Jerome Powell (whose mandate runs until 2026) and his policy of lower rates he deems too slow.

In the statistical chapter, very little difference to report on weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States, to 223,000 new units. Consensus, however, exceeded the “Philly Fed” (Manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Fed), at 12.50.

On the values ​​side, on the SBF 120, Eurofins gained 6.3% after announcing a new program of share buybacks. But it is Esso who finishes at the top of the extended index (+14%). The group will offer its shareholders an exceptional dividend of 50 euros, in addition to an ordinary coupon of 3 euros for the results of 2024. This delights the scholarship which passes the sponge on 2024 degraded results. Ubisoft increased 3.85% while this Thursday Assassin’s Creed Shadows, a crucial game for the future of society on Thursday. Red lantern of the SBF 120, Sodexo which plunged 17.15% after issuing a heavy warning on results.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in red in narrow margins, like the Dow Jones (-0.03%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.33%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted from 0.22% to 5,662 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0830. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 68.20. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.25%. As for the VIX, it was worth 19.80 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the consumer trust index in the euro zone at 4:00 p.m.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.

Under the 7,810 points, the technical situation would deteriorate somewhat, with in particular the effect of attraction of gaps formed in January, especially that of the 16, very large.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8260.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a rupture of the 8030.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics