CAC 40: customs uncertainties break the initiatives

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The CAC 40 index, a tricolor flagship index, contracted from 0.96% to 8,030, saving the important technical threshold of the 8,000 points, while uncertainties on customs duties that the United States will apply from April 02 continue to weigh on appetite for the risk in market rooms, on both sides of the Atlantic.

The market continues to monitor the slightest declaration upstream of April 2, when the United States has planned to establish reciprocal customs duties on global imports. According to CNBC, Donald Trump said on Tuesday that these customs surcharges could be more “indulgent than reciprocal” while adding that “there would not be too many exceptions”. Difficult to see clearly. “In short the artistic vagueness remains …”, summarizes John Plassard de Mirabaud.

On Monday, the American president said that “many countries” could initially be spared. According to the Financial Times, Donald Trump teams are looking to base themselves on a robust legal framework. This could lead to less high -term measures. This is all the difficulty faced by the market, which by nature of its functioning hates uncertainty. And even though Trump maintains doubts about large activity sides, especially the automobile.

In the statistical chapter on Wednesday, investors learned of the orders of lasting goods, in a very lively monthly increase (+0.7%, excluding transport equipment), largely beating the target.

The main meeting the day before was the sacrosanct index of Conference Board of household confidence (understanding: consumers!) Outrelated. An important benchmark at a time when inflationary fears of Trump’s expansionist and anti-immigration policy weigh on the morale of buyers. The indicator missed expectations, going from 100.1 to 92.9.

“Consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month in March, passing under the relatively narrow range which has been prevailing since 2022,” said Stéphanie Guichard, a world’s chief economist, to the Conference Board. “Among the five components of the index, only the evaluation by consumers of the current labor market situation has improved slightly. Their opinions on the current economic situation have weakened, close to neutrality. Consumer expectations were particularly pessimistic, pessimism as to the upcoming economic conjuncture and confidence in employment prospects falling at its lowest level for 12 years. Consumers about their future income, who had maintained themselves quite securely in recent months, has been largely faded, which suggests that concerns about the economy and the labor market have started to spread in the evaluation of their personal situation. “

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the Red Wednesday session, mainly due to the intensification of the reflux on the technological part of the coast. Because if the Dow Jones only depreciated by 0.31%, the Nasdaq Composite plunged from 2.04% to 17,899 points. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, lost 1.12% to 5,712 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0780. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.37%. As for the VIX, it was worth 18.33 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow the final growth data and weekly registrations in the United States at 1:30 p.m.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.

Under the 7,810 points, the technical situation would deteriorate somewhat, with in particular the effect of attraction of gaps formed in January, especially that of the 16, very large.

Again, the 8,000 points are the technical issue of the week.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics