CAC 40: Historical day in the history of globalization?

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The date of April 02 – We are there – was checked in the agendas of the stock exchange stakeholders, private investors, as managers or institutional. It is indeed on this date that D Trump should communicate precisely reveal the surcharges applied to such a country, such a product, and under what conditions. In the meantime, the CAC has taken advantage of redemptions on the cheaps to bounce back on Tuesday from 1.10% to 7,876 points.

“Between Donald Trump’s constant overbidding, his incessant back and forth and his notorious contradictions, we are close to indigestion. It is indeed difficult to find ourselves when, in the same sentence, Donald Trump evokes both the reciprocal customs duties which will be announced on April 2, described as” Liberation Day “, to put an end to what he describes as a” American for years, and “the surprise of people who will see her leniency”, notes in a note Thomas GIUDICI, head of the bond management of Auris Gestion.

“For the time being, nothing seems to be able to stop Donald Trump. Nevertheless the principle of reality (financial or economic) will end, sooner or later, by winning. The” day of liberation “, failing to release the markets, will lift at least uncertainty on the duties of applied customs. We bet that it is a maximum before inevitable negotiations. The European Union did not wait for this” release ” Concessions … “

In the statistical chapter, the operators learned of the very first estimates of inflation within the meaning of retail prices in the euro zone, excluding volatile elements, came out for March at +2.4% in annual rate, compared to 2.5% anticipated.

“With a stable development of consumer goods, this has brought a certain relief for the basic rate, which has increased only by 2.4 % in March. The European Central Bank will be delighted with this development, because a new softening of services of services is a key hypothesis to achieve its 2 % inflation objective,” commented Ulrike Kastens, Senior Europe DWS economist

The markets have also read the final data of the PMI manufacturer in the euro zone in final data, at 48.6 points, very close to the first estimates.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at the commercial Hamburg Bank, brought the following lighting: “If the PMI index has straightened up in Germany and France, the two main economies in the euro zone, it has however folded in Italy, while it established itself below 50.0 of without change for a second consecutive month in Spain after having a relatively high level at a relatively high level. Hopefully budgetary spending will increase significantly in Germany, and that this increase will also benefit other countries in the region, thus stimulating growth throughout the euro zone.

On the values ​​side, Airbus finishes at the top of the Parisian star index (+3.2%), followed by L’Oréal (+3%) and Schneider Electric (+2.4%) which, for its part, benefited from an HSBC opinion increase which went from “to buy” against “to” keep “, with a price target of 250 euros. Solutions 30 resumed 10.8%, after having revealed its annual results and renewed its prospects for 2026. On the other hand, black day for McPhy which dropped more than 30% having reported tensions on its cash, suggesting significant uncertainty about the continuity of its exploitation.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended in dispersed order, the Dow Jones symbolically ending in the red (-0.03%) and the composite Nasdaq winning 0.87%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, grabbed 0.38% to 5,633 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0790. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 70.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.19%. As for the VIX, it was worth 21.77 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow in priority at 2:15 pm the monthly ADP report on American employment. We will also follow, of course, with care, the customs measures that the White House will engage. The press conference is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. (Paris time), so well after the closing of European places.

“Donald Trump will specify this Wednesday the contours of the reciprocal customs duties plan which will come into force on April 2 and which in particular threaten the automobile, semiconductors, pharmaceutical products and raw materials. Europe fears 25% prices on its automotive industry and Asia remains under the threat of new customs barriers”, recalls Michel Douin, Dupont Oudart.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework evolves, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. This rupture is not formally supported by volumes and a sectoral federation, or even a GAP, but it is sufficiently symbolic to cause a loss of progressive confidence in the spirits. Major questioning, in progress for several weeks, can now result in a continuation of the reflux under the long mobile average at 50 days (in orange).

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8000.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics