(BFM Stock Exchange) – All world markets are experiencing a black Monday, worried about the repercussions of the customs war initiated by the United States. Several risks are at the origin of what is a real stock market capitulation.

The term “black” day on the stock market sometimes tends to be overused. But how to qualify the session on Monday, April 7, otherwise?

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell down 13.5%, that of Tokyo lost 7.8%. In Europe, the Dax of Frankfurt fell by 4.5%, the CAC 40 abandons 5%.

Wall Street also left to suffer. The long -term contract on the S&P 500, an advanced indicator of the trend to come, abandons 2.6%.

“We are really on a market crash, even if that does not mean (that the market) will not go up,” said BFM Business Wilfrid Galand, deputy managing director of Montpensier Arbevel.

Obviously, the trigger for this general panic movement remains the announcement of the reciprocal prices on April 2, by Donald Trump. The American president announced a battery of customs surcharge including a rate of 20% for the European Union and 34% for China, which will bring total customs duties for this country to 54%.

>> Access our exclusive graphic analyzes, and enter into the confidence of the trading portfolio

The United States has gone to the application. A 10% floor customs right on all imports of the United States entered into force on Saturday. The various increases imposed on 60 countries are scheduled for April 9.

“The reset of the world order by Trump 2.0 sowed chaos in world economies and markets,” summarizes Barclays.

This stock market “chaos” is explained by five risks which are obviously connected to each other. Here is an overview.

> 1/ The risk of climbing in the trade war

The problem is not only Washington’s decisions but also the risk that all countries targeted by the United States retaliate to customs surcharges. This would create a real “trade war” on a planetary scale.

China has already announced on Friday that it would in turn impose 34% customs surcharge on American goods. These customs duties will come into force on April 10.

Wilfrid Galand explains that this response surprised investors, evoking “an extremely hard, extremely violent” reaction from China. “This is the first time that China has reacts as it to American customs duties, it had not been the case in 2018 at all (when the customs duties were set up during Trump’s first mandate, editor’s note),” he added. For the expert, the markets had not anticipated this “climbing”.

Europeans evaluate their options. The European European Commissioner, Stéphane Séjourné, said on France Inter on Monday that the European Union could decide to withdraw American companies from the markets. The Minister of Foreign Trade, Laurent Saint-Martin warned on Monday that the European response could be “extremely aggressive”.

According to Reuters, the Member States will vote on April 9 on countermeasures in response to previous American surcharge, hitting imports of steel and aluminum.

The French government spokesperson Sophie Primas mentioned another train of measures for the end of April, adding that precise measures and mechanisms were not stopped.

“We are rather expecting symbolic announcements, having a weak effect on the European consumer, and leaving the door open to negotiations and a de -escalation,” writes Christopher Dembik, investment advisor at Pictet AM.

2/ A risk of recession

This is obviously a risk that depends a lot on climbing in the trade war. Very simply, customs surcharge may result in a sharp drop in world trade and therefore less exports.

Simply because consumers who buy surcharged goods (or companies that import equipment or raw materials) will face higher prices. Any other thing equal, the demand for imported goods would drop, and therefore, by ricochet, exports would fall.

All this will obviously affect the global economy. “Reciprocal customs tariffs and reprisals are recession factors, and prolonged political uncertainty will likely maintain downward pressure on actions until Trump is back. However, his pain tolerance threshold is not known,” said Barclays.

“The deterioration of stock markets would soon be followed by a collapse of the confidence of households and businesses, the economy entering into recession in the space of a few months,” predicts Capital Economics, for the United States alone.

A recession in the United States would result in repercussions on the world economy. “The United States represents 4% of the world’s population and 26% of its GDP thanks to the American consumer”, the first struck by these customs rights, recalls Dan Ives, of Wedbush.

Deutsche Bank believes that the new customs diet imposed by the United States will have an impact of at least 0.4 gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone.

Cited by Marketwatch, JPMorgan evaluates, more broadly, at 60% the risk of global recession by the end of the year.

3/ The unpredictability of the American government

Since coming to power in the United States, on January 20, Donald Trump has blowed up hot and cold on his commercial policy, one day announcing customs duties before suspending them the next day. These hesitations have created nervousness on the market which turned into risk aversion.

The April 2 sequence has strengthened this problem. While the whole world awaited learned calculations which would take into account the non -customs elements (barrier at the entry into the markets, public subsidies) to apply the surcharges on imports, the American administration has been much simpler. As the New York Times revealed, the calculation of customs surcharge applied to each country or group of countries has in fact based on a simple formula, close to a rule of three, with the trade deficit divided by American imports.

“This determination is very mechanical, rather than a sophisticated assessment of the price and non -tariff barriers,” notes Deutsche Bank.

The German bank points to a “disconnection” between what the United States had announced (an in-depth review of bilateral trade deficits) and the simplicity of the result. “We fear that this does not affect the political credibility of the Administration (American, Editor’s note)” and “the market could question the structuring of the process of planning major economic decisions” warns Deutsche Bank.

“It is fair to say that the markets, and most of the world, have been left in shock. Since the dubious methodology used to determine the rate for each country, and their self -destruction potential for the American economy, it is possible that there is a margin of negotiation,” wants to believe for its Barclays.

Capital Economics believes that Donald Trump will make a back machine, and that reciprocal customs duties will amount between 10% and 20% after negotiations, with the exception of China. “We think that even the Pugnace Trump must understand that it went too far this time. Although the uncertainty remains very high, the next most likely step is that Trump will quickly announce some” agreements “which will reduce the prohibitive rates of reciprocal customs tariffs on some of the hardest affected countries,” explains Capital Economics.

But to date, no American statement is going in this direction.

4/ The risk of absence of support from the American central bank

The negative impacts on the economy caused by customs duties could be compensated, at least partially, by the rate reductions of director on the part of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), the largest central bank in the world. Lower rates are synonymous with lower borrowing costs, which encourages more households to consume and companies to invest. In other words, a drop in Fed rates provides support to the American situation and by ricochet to the world economy.

Besides, Friday, Donald Trump enjoins Jerome Powell, the president of the Fed, to lower the rates. But the central banker has timed, stressing that the pricing policy would certainly have impacts on growth but also on inflation which risks increasing.

For Wilfrid Galand, the lack of reaction from the Fed is “the second leg” of stock market panic.

If the Fed, in its mandate, must take into account the evolution of unemployment (and therefore of the economic situation), its objective also aims to limit inflation around 2%. However, risks on the rise in prices exist today.

The Fed “should remain focused on inflation, at least until the summer. There are numerous inflationary pressures, both resulting from protectionism and the increase in the cost of housing which remains the main contributor to inflation in monthly variation. The publication of consumer prices for March this week could reserve a unpleasant surprise,” explains Christopher Dembik de Pictet AM. “The inflationary impact of customs duties could encourage the Fed to stay on the sidelines for the moment,” says Barclays.

5/ The risk of collapse of American tech

Recall that the United States represents, in terms of market capitalization, 64% of the total value of world scholarships, according to UBS. And the American tech giants are the big locomotives of Wall Street. Seven of the ten largest companies listed in the world come from this sector.

“Large technological companies are reassessed as a dead weight and not as a refuge value,” said Stephen Innes of SPI AM.

By imposing universal customs duties on all of its business partners, the Trump administration is mistreating the logistics chain of these large groups, since many of their suppliers are located in Asia. Take Apple: 90% of iPhones are produced and assembled in China, according to Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush. An infographic published by the Wall Street Journal this weekend has also shown that the production costs of an iPhone 16 Pro could increase by 54% with new customs tariffs.

“The technological values ​​will be clearly under high pressure due to the concerns about the destruction of demand, supply chains and, in particular, the Chinese and Taiwanese component of customs duties. For Nvidia and other flea manufacturers strongly exposed to the supply chains of China and Taiwan, concern relates to the impact on prices and margins”, explains Arkéa AM.

“If these customs duties (in their current form and rate) are maintained, there is no debate … This would make the American technological world go back a decade in our opinion, while China is the big winner … and we do not see a debate,” says Dan Ives. “It takes 4 to 5 years to build a factory in the United States, the American workforce and the cost structure go against the very concept of the modern supply chain, a large part of the intellectual property and the technology that feeds the supply chain is cemented in Asia,” continues the analyst.

Recall that large groups of American tech streams on other listed companies, including in Europe. For example, a large part of the growth of Schneider Electric has been carried, in recent years, by the growth of data centers to respond to the demands of “hyperscalers”, that is to say Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft.