(BFM Stock Exchange) – Although the Trump administration denies it, the markets have at least partially prompted the American president to review his copy on customs duties, according to several media and experts.

What investors hoped for happened. On Wednesday evening, Donald Trump announced a 90 -day break on the customs surcharges they had revealed on April 2. More precisely, customs duties for all countries will be reduced to 10% during this period.

A notable exception: China. The United States has decided to increase the taxation rate of Chinese products at 125%, compared to 104% previously. With the other countries, a phase of negotiations will now open to try to achieve agreements.

On Truth Social, Donald Trump justified his flip-flop by explaining that 75 countries had started discussions with the United States to find solutions while abstaining from taking reprisals. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, explained that “it was his strategy” from the start.

In other words, the tenant of the White House would have followed his plan to the letter: to put enormous pressure with the customs duties to push his business partners to negotiate and submit concessions.

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“A refinancing wall”

It is allowed to think that Donald Trump was not, moreover, insensitive to recent market turbulence. Questioned by CNBC, the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lunick assured that the market dive was “absolutely not” a factor that prompted Donald Trump to make a 180 degree turn.

This is not quite what experts judge or tell the American media.

Recall that the announcement of customs from customs caused a dive of the equity markets. The CAC 40 has thus lost more than 12.5%in five sessions. This is due to the fears of recession that these measures have caused.

But more than the equity markets, it is the bond markets, that is to say those of the debt, which seem to have exerted a notable influence on the decision of the American president.

“He folded in front of one of the financial markets: the debt financial market,” said former European Commissioner Thierry Breton on BFMTV-RMC, who knows the markets well for managing listed groups (France Telecom, Atos).

Rates that fly away

Donald Trump “faces a refinancing wall” on the debt of the United States and thus has an interest “that interest rates are as low as possible,” continued the former business manager.

However, for several days, the United States has been under pressure on the debt market. Which is not the least of the paradoxes. Normally, when the scholarships are drifting, the obligations are acclaimed and the rates (which evolve in the opposite direction to the bond price) drop because investors are looking for security.

The 10 -year debt rate of the American obligation had also backed down, last Thursday and Friday, in the wake of Donald Trump’s announcements on customs surcharges.

But everything changed this week. About 3.8% on Monday, the yield of the 10-year-old treasury voucher dresses more than 4.44% Wednesday in the afternoon, on the secondary market, that is to say that where investors exchange their debt titles between them.

Such an increase is very important on this type of market and can result in a heavy increase in interest paid by the United States on their debt. In 2024, these interests of interest reached $ 949 billion, according to the Office Budget Congress.

In addition, an auction, that is to say a sale of debt by the United States on the markets, went wrong on Tuesday. During this three -year adjudication, the coverage ratio, an investor demand indicator for American paper, fell to a six -month below.

A “perfect storm” on American debt

The markets therefore began to turn away from American obligations, probably worried about the economic risks posed by customs surcharge. Bank of America estimated that a “perfect storm” presented itself to investors on American debt with both a risk of inflation due to customs duties but also a risk of worsening the public deficit.

Some experts have also feared that China, or even Japan, who have $ 760 million respectively and more than $ 1,000 billion in American bonds, sell titles and still raise American yields.

“Asian investors in particular seem to sell American assets,” said Paul Diggle of the Aberdeen active manager.

“In the extreme, it could turn into a ‘dumping’ (a massive sale, editor’s note) of treasury bills by China, as it has long been speculated,” he added.

Trump looked at the bond market

The situation therefore became tense. To the point of influencing Donald Trump? “Although President Donald Trump was able to resist the fall in stock market markets, once the bond market began to weaken, it was only a matter of time before it renounces its excessively high customs duties,” judges Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.

“Let’s be clear: it is not the actions that disturbed it. It is the bond market that illuminated itself like a Christmas tree and the rue du Financing which flashed in red,” abounds Stephen Innes of AM.

In a note published Wednesday evening, George Saravelos de Deutsche Bank notes that Donald Trump operated his flip-flop after having “indicated that he was monitoring the bond market”.

The Washington Post writes that it took “a scary bond market” for Donald Trump to influence his position on customs duties. The American media reports that the American president told journalists that people had become “a little nauseous” on the debt market.

CNN says Donald Trump told one of his journalists that he “observed the bond market”. “The bond market is very delicate. I observed it. But if you look at it now, it is beautiful,” he said on the television channel.

This is not frankly the case. Admittedly, the rate of the American obligation at 10 years fell from 4.44% to 4.31% on Thursday. But the latter remains much higher than the 3.8% reached Monday …