EUR/USD: exchange changes …

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The exchange market must deal with Donald Trump’s spectacular flip-flop on customs duties. Wednesday evening, the unpredictable tenant of the White House announced a 90 -day break on the customs surcharges they had revealed on April 2. More precisely, customs duties for all countries will be reduced to 10% during this period.

A notable exception: China. The United States has decided to increase the taxation rate of Chinese products at 125%, compared to 104% previously. With the other countries, a phase of negotiations will now open to try to achieve agreements.

On Truth Social, Donald Trump justified his flip-flop by explaining that 75 countries had started discussions with the United States to find solutions while abstaining from taking reprisals. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, explained that “it was his strategy” from the start.

It is interesting that from April 08, so the day before Trump’s flip-flop, Libby Cantrill, Head of US Public Policy at Pimco lit up the situation in these terms: “Despite the probable feints and reversals, we advise to focus on the final outcome: higher customs duties. Our basic scenario provides: a universal rate of 10 % for all countries; higher rights for China; Maintaining the tariffs section 232; specific prices by country during the duration of the negotiations (which could take more time than expected). At the same time, we anticipate that the White House will quickly redirect its speech to promote tax reductions which, in our view, will be more important than what was initially envisaged. “

With consequences on rates, and therefore on the dollar. In the immediate and short -term, it is the “oxygen intake” effect which predominates, with an increase in the euro, the fine barometer of the appetite for the risk. A very strong hard volatility The pair of flagship currencies in the weeks and months to come is to be expected.

To follow the consumer price dynamics in the United States at 2:30 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1060 approximately.

Key graphics elements

After the very clear crossing of $,0608 the pair of currencies had entered a long -range lateralization phase, a phase now finished. A bullish outing is in full expression, even though the Bollinger bands go away strongly. Nevertheless in the short term, the early entry into consolidation is the predilection scenario, around the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,0758 USD and the resistance to 1,1250 USD.

Daily data graphics