EUR/USD: Often, Trump varies, very fol who relies there …

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While the American 10 years, however, finds some colors, the dollar suffers more and more, against a backdrop of loss of confidence in the hitherto hegemonic role of the greenback in world trade, and against a backdrop of fear of a marked slowdown in the American economy at the heart of an intense trade war, associated with a potential return of inflation.

However, the tone is in de -escalation, certainly relative, between Beijing and Washington. This weekend, the White House lowered to 20% (a “floor”) customs duties on computers and smartphones, thus yielding to Apple pressure, of which many components of its products come from China.

“It is obvious that US companies will have more difficulty diversifying their supply chains given the scale of customs duties. Political considerations could also lead to a relaxation of the position of the Trump administration with the approach of mid-Mandat elections,” comments Claudia Panseri, Chief Investment Officer at UBS WM France.

As a reminder, Wednesday evening, the unpredictable tenant of the White House announced a 90 -day break on the customs surcharges they had revealed on April 2. More precisely, customs duties for all countries will be reduced to 10% during this period, with the notable exception of China.

“The rapid and aggressive implementation of customs duties by the Trump administration questions the role of the dollar in the world,” analyzes Frederik Ducrozet, Head of Macroeconomic Research, and Xiao Cui, Senior Economist, at Pictet Wealth Management. “These aggressive customs duties are part of the proposal for the Mar-A-Lago agreement [qui] aims to remedy the overvaluation of the dollar and to the American double deficit using customs duties and security guarantees as a means of pressure on business partners. The objective is to devalue the dollar while preserving its status as a reserve currency, and the agreement offers solutions such as interventions on currencies and debt exchanges to extend the duration of treasury bills. “

Active decision-makers think “that the Mar-A-Lago agreement is inappropriate from a theoretical and practical point of view. The most radical aspects of the plan would question the financial stability of the United States by destabilizing treasury bills, eroding the independence of the Fed and by undermining the status of reserve currency of the dollar.”

Impossible for the ECB, which brings together the Council of Governors this week, not to comment on the still uncertain consequences of this trade war. “Given the high level of uncertainty, we do not provide for a change in the communication of the ECB: it will remain dependent on the data, with decisions taken meeting by meeting. Other reductions in short -term rate cannot be excluded, although the room for maneuver remains limited, in particular due to the German budgetary plan”, lights Ulrike Kastens, senior Europe DWS economist.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority a speech by C Waller (member of the Fed) at 7:00 p.m., as part of an event organized by the company of approved financial analysts in Saint-Louis. The agenda will expand tomorrow with the Zew index of trust in the German economy.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1380 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Consolidation in triangle from 04 to 09 April is now over, the pair of currencies being violently out from the top. The energy released is important, but the ease with which the Eurusd shatters the resistances augurs for a pursuit of height. An accumulation zone between 1,1460 and 1,1674 is identified, as well as a bullish lens $ 1,1970.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1384 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,1970 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1199 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 586 pips and the risk of loss was 185 pips.

Daily data graphics