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Friday, the CAC 40 index (+1.78%) gained ground throughout the session, feeding on a multiplication of encouraging signals on the trade war.
The market appreciates certain advances on the file of customs duties. Beijing and Washington have announced that they have agreed on the details of an agreement made in London, mid-June, which must reduce customs surcharge that the two countries had mutually inflicted. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, also said that the United States would specify concluding commercial negotiations with more than a dozen countries by early September, according to the Wall Street Journal. Which implies that The administration will not stick to the deadline of July 9, which it initially set to impose higher customs duties on imports from dozens of countries.
The PCE prices, Fed’s favorite measure in its price appreciation, clearly constituted the statistical highlight of this second part of the week. They have just been published, up 0.2%, twice as much as the consensus augur.
“PCE inflation measures (Personal consumption Expenditure) are the most monitored by the members of the federal reserve, these are those used in the quarterly projections of the institution and which serve, among other indicators, to adjust the level of the rate range, “recalled Alexandre Baradez, IG France analyst before the publication of these key figures for the market.
What give additional support to J Powell in his delay strategy, while Trump continues to exert disproportionate pressure for the Fed to lower its guiding rates.
“Jerome Powell had indicated to the senators:” The reason why we do not lower the rates for the moment is that the projections, within the Fed and outside, anticipate a significant increase in inflation this year. “. He also said that he thought that inflation linked to customs taxes would begin to be seen from June and that the situation would require monitoring on summer.”
Independence between the American executive, and Federal Reserve (Fed) is the cadet of the worries of the 45th and 47th president of the United States …
“The Trump administration maintains […] The pressure on the Fed and its president, Jerome Powell, by demanding an immediate monetary softening, but Mr. Powell says he is confident on the latest macroeconomic data and prefers to wait for the end of the period of commercial uncertainty before lowering the rates. For the moment, the markets anticipate one to two drops by the end of the year. Also note, the expected appointment of a new president of the Fed Plus Dovish from May 2026, which should be a bearer for American obligations “, for Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.
Another announcement likely to reassure the market: the abandonment by the United States of an update of the “section 899” of the American finance bill, also called “Revenge Tax”. This law would have enabled the US government to “impose an additional tax up to 20% on the revenues of foreigners in the United States (capital income and commercial income), if the US government estimates that US companies are treated unjustly abroad,” notes ODDO BHF.
On the values ​​side, Schneider Electric and Legrand gained 6.5% and 4.4%, these two titles benefiting from the renunciation of this “Revenge Tax”, North America being a land of growth for these two companies, especially in the datacenters. Very present in the United States, Publicis took 2.35%. Worldline has dropped 9% while Belgium opened a survey of a Belgian subsidiary of the company following items published on Wednesday which accuse the group of having knowingly closed their eyes to the practices of its high -risk customers. Dominating the debates on the compartment A of the side, Nexans won 7.24%. To complete the values ​​club taking advantage of the context favorable to electrification, Rexel won 3.52%.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session of Friday, June 27 in the green, like the Dow Jones (+1.00%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.52%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, won 0.52% increase at 6,173 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1730. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 64.75. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.29%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.32 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow the M3 money mass in the euro zone at 10:00 am, the PMI index of Chicago at 3:45 p.m. and a speech of C Lagarde, president of the ECB, at the Sintra forum in Portugal.
Key graphics elements
The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.
The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.
First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.
The intermediate support of the 7,500 points nevertheless allowed the flagship index to find oxygen at the end of the week 26. It is already back on an intermediate resistance to 7,700 points.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7700.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7605.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
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