EUR/USD: Trump nervously agitates the dollar compass

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The dollar found a little going after the Pascale festivals, while the Sino-American trade tensions decreased a notch, after words deemed reassuring of Scott Bessent, the American equivalent of our boss of Bercy. Mr Bessent provides a substantial decrease in the surcharges imposed in Beijing, speaking of an “untenable” situation.

A de -escalation that remains to be confirmed in fact. The theme of the trade war is therefore not ready to leave the screens of “Newsflow” of the Cover. Especially since the EU, despite a suspension of the application of surcharge for 90 days, remains “the test of this trade war”.

“Despite the suspension of reciprocal prices, the average active customs right of customs in the United States has been at the highest since 1901, at 28 %, due, in particular, of colossal customs tariffs established on Chinese products”, calculates the strategy team markets in the mystrateweekly of Ostrum AM.

“Given the prohibitive prices between China and the United States, the EU risks faced a large influx of very competitive Chinese products. The EU has indicated that it would take measures to limit them. Beyond establishing partnerships with other countries, it is essential that the EU strengthens the European single market which is still currently the subject of important tariff barriers. 44 % on goods and 110 % on services, according to the IMF “

Also note a retropedage on the part of the White House on his attitude towards the Fed, the tenant of the White House having finally confirmed that he was not a question of dismissing his boss, J Powell, which he himself appointed …

Reminder, Donald Trump attacked the boss of the American central bank on Monday, which he dealt with “huge loser”, while the persistent tensions between the American president and Jerome Powell already worry the markets.

“There may be a slowdown in the economy unless ‘sir too late’, a huge loser, drops interest rates, now,” wrote Donald Trump on his social social network, in a transparent reference to the chief of the Fed.

In the statistical chapter on Wednesday, the Manufacturer index of the Richmond Fed has sinned to -13, lower in negative territory, completely missing expectations. Published this Thursday, the very first estimates of the PMI barometers for the euro zone stand out at contrasting levels, at 48.7 for the manufacturing industry – it is above the consensus), but symbolically under the 50 for the services, at 49.7. Recall that a score less than 50 points represents a contraction of the sector considered.

“The new tax policies of Germany, intended to increase defense and infrastructure spending, and the increase in military spending in several European countries, should however promote, in the long term, a resumption of the service sector,” relativizes Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist in Hamburg Commercial Bank.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1411 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Consolidation in triangle from 04 to 09 April is now over, the pair of currencies being violently out from the top. The energy released is important, but the ease with which the Eurusd shatters the resistances augurs for a pursuit of height. An accumulation zone between 1,1460 and 1,1674 is identified, as well as a bullish lens $ 1,1970.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1250 and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics