(BFM Stock Exchange) – The bank has seen its opinion on the aeronautical and defense group, relating to its advice to purchase. She judges that the recent drop in the title can offer an interesting point of entry. The bank is confident on the evolution of the customs duties file and is encouraged by the increase in Airbus production in the first quarter.

Airbus waged investors, when its quarterly results are published last week. The aeronautical and defense group has generated an adjusted operating profit and, above all, a cash flow, higher expectations.

The company has also adopted a reassuring tone on the heavy file of customs duties. Without giving precise indications, its executive president, Guillaume Faury explained that the direct impact of customs from customs was “manageable” as it is (that is to say to the situation last Wednesday evening) and did not upset the 2025 perspectives of the aircraft manufacturer.

According to Cirium data cited by ODDO BHF, 98 planes must be delivered this year to American companies, including 31 from the European assemblies in Europe, 21 mobile, in the United States, and 46 for which the final assembly site has not been specified.

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An interesting risk taking

“For imports from Europe, Airbus indicates, for example, analyzing the possibility of delivering operators outside the United States, to deliver to partners concerned operators or even deliveries outside the American jurisdiction (such as the Delta A350 delivered to Japan),” adds Oddo BHF.

If these devices are delivered, the design office estimates the direct impact of customs duties, in the most unfavorable scenario, at around 300 million euros for Airbus.

Another important point: Guillaume Faury indicated that customs duties had not caused additional tensions on the logistics chain, a crucial element. The title took 5.3% on Friday following these announcements.

Should this publication and these indications encourage investors to return to an action that has lost more than 10% since mid-March?

Jefferies, in any case, answers in the affirmative. The bank has, Friday evening after the closing of the markets, noted its opinion on Airbus to the purchase against “keep” previously, and adjusted its lens of courses to 180 euros, against 175 euros before.

This change of recommendation allows Airbus action to outperform the market. The title takes 0.7% around 10:50 am when the CAC 40 decreases by 0.6%.

Overall, the establishment considers that the risk-risk couple is attractive in view of the recent withdrawal of the action, encouraging data on the production of the group and the indications given by the company on the impact of customs duties.

Back to 1979

“In fact, we believe that the customs situation is now more likely to evolve positively than negatively, the industry putting pressure for a return to the 1979 agreement without customs duties”. The “Trade on Civil Aircraft” agrement “(ACCA) of 1979 had been signed by the United States and most Western countries.

To simplify, this text has established the principle of free trade on aircraft exports, eliminating import duties on devices as well as on engines and spare parts, components or flight simulators.

Guillaume Faury mentioned the will of the aeronautical industry to return to this text, while Larry Culp, the director general of the engine manufacturer Ge Aerospace pleaded for a return to this legislation.

“Although it is not our basic scenario at this stage, we believe that this could trigger a reappropiation of the multiple scholarship holders significant of civil aeronautics actors,” said Jefferies.

Apart from this catalyst potential, the Banque points out the encouraging data from Airbus on its production, which it considers “acceptable” with regard to the difficulties that the group encounters in the supply of engines and aerostructures.

This is even more judicious if we take into account the 17 gliders – finished aircraft but who await an engine to be delivered to a customer – who were manufactured during the first quarter.

By integrating these devices, the production of Airbus over the first three months of the year increased by 8%, calculates Jefferies, while the target 2025 of deliveries of the company, namely 820 planes, implies a growth of 7% of production. Encouraging data since Airbus is used to hoisting the production rate at the end of the year.

Jefferies also upgraded the “Defense and Espace” division of Airbus, attributing a multiple of 13 times the expected operating profit against ten times previously. This is because of “the rapid evolution of the feeling (market, editor’s note) with regard to defense and (additional funds which will probably be devoted (by governments, editor’s note) to space”.