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The CAC 40, after an undecided session on resistance levels, ended down 0.40% on Tuesday, in fairly small volumes, while the Paris market took note of the election in the second round of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU-CSU, as a German Chancellor. The political leader had failed to be elected in the first round.
“The votes being secret, we will not know the official reasons for the failure of the first round this morning, but it seems to us that certain deputies of the CDU/CSU wanted to express their dissatisfaction with the flip-flop of Merz in terms of tax policy as a result of the elections,” said Carsten Brzeski responsible for macroeconomic research at ING.
The operators naturally remain pending new developments in the trade war led by Trump against the rest of the world, and particularly Beijing. Preliminary discussions between a Chinese delegation and an American delegation will be held this weekend in Switzerland, in Bern.
If these customs issues will naturally be followed, the monetary issue will be at the center of the debates in the markets of the markets. The Fed completes this Wednesday a monetary policy meeting (FOMC). The American central bank should leave its rates unchanged, anticipates Barclays.
“We expect the May press release from the Monetary Policy Committee and Jerome Powell to recognize that certain measures of short -term inflation expectations based on the market and surveys have increased, and that household and business surveys indicate a drop in feeling and increased uncertainty about the prospects,” writes the British bank.
In the statistical chapter, note that the final data of the PMI services in the euro zone, in final data for April, were symbolically emerged above the 50 points, at 50.1 while the first estimates equaled a score slightly lower than this mark which separates an expansion from a contraction.
The day before, investors learned yesterday of the “feelix”, index measuring the confidence of investors in the euro zone, which remained in negative territory at -8,1, but the rebound is strong, the score being -19.5 last month. The barometer indicator has significantly exceeded expectations, at -14.9.
The eponymous research institute brought the following insights: “A month after the massive shock that rocked investors due to American customs policy and caused a free fall in the economic data feltix, the situation is calm. The investors revise their economic analyzes, sometimes significantly.
“Investors recognize the calm observed so far in the face of American customs rights. The current situation and expectations show signs of recovery. The main victims of Trump’s customs policy are the American economy and, to some extent, Chinese and Swiss economies. However, the period of uncertainty is probably not over.”
On the side of the values, the residents of the CAC 40 moved little. Teleperformance won 3.7%, the highest increase in the index, while the most pronounced withdrawal was accused by Essilorluxottica (-2.4%). Excluding CAC 40, Elis sold 1.3% after delivering growth slightly lower than expectations in the first quarter.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished Tuesday in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.95%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.87%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted from 0.77% to 5,606 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1360. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 59.40. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.31%. As for the Vix, it was worth 24.75 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the French trade balance at 8:45 am, and the decision of monetary policy of the Fed at 8:00 pm.
Key graphics elements
The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7810.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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