EUR/USD: Meet at 8:30 p.m. for the Fed press conference

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Approaching the outcome of a new monetary policy meeting of the Fed (the famous FOMC), the PAIR of Euro / Dollar currencies continued to build its consolidation movement near the $ 1,1360 for a euro on a background of wait -and -see.

On the outcome of the FOMC, a monetary status quo is acquired, but the stake is elsewhere. “We believe that the Fed will be patient” on the rate reductions, “but that it will act decisively if the labor market shows clear signs of deterioration,” said Pictet AM. “Consequently, the key question of the calendar of a drop in rates is whether and when the concrete data will indicate a sufficient economic slowdown for the Fed to intervene,” she concludes.

A wait -and -see wait and prevailing on the commercial file while Chinese and American delegations have planned to meet in neutral ground (in Switzerland, of course), for preliminary discussions on customs duties.

“If, in the aftermath of the” Liberation Day “, one could legitimately think that the customs duties would be gradually revised downwards and that there was ultimately more good than bad news to wait, the current situation seems to us slightly inverse. Indeed, Donald Trump will not return to the very principle of customs duties and it seems to us therefore difficult to adopt a more optimistic posture. Above all, the concrete effects of the trade war on the results of companies do not yet seem completely at the center of attentions, “warns Thomas GIUDICI, head of the bond management of Auris Gestion.

In the statistical chapter, note that the final data of the PMI services in the euro zone, in final data for April, were symbolically emerged above the 50 points, at 50.1 while the first estimates equaled a score slightly lower than this mark which separates an expansion from a contraction.

The day before, investors learned yesterday of the “feelix”, index measuring the confidence of investors in the euro zone, which remained in negative territory at -8,1, but the rebound is strong, the score being -19.5 last month. The barometer indicator has significantly exceeded expectations, at -14.9.

The operators on currencies also took note of the election in the second round of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU-CSU, as a German Chancellor. The political leader had failed to be elected in the first round. A legitimacy already a little deceased?

“The votes being secret, we will not know the official reasons for the failure of the first round this morning, but it seems to us that certain deputies of the CDU/CSU wanted to express their dissatisfaction with the flip-flop of Merz in terms of tax policy as a result of the elections,” said Carsten Brzeski responsible for macroeconomic research at ING.

To follow at 8:00 p.m. the Fed monetary policy decision, namely a status quo on rates except enormous surprise, and at 8:30 p.m. the traditional press conference.

Key graphics elements

Consolidation in triangle from 04 to 09 April is now over, the pair of currencies being violently out from the top. The energy released is important, but the ease with which the Eurusd shatters the resistances augurs for a pursuit of height. An accumulation zone between 1,1460 and 1,1674 is identified, as well as a bullish objective $ 1,1970, in the long term.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics