CAC 40: Towards a overhaul of customs prices between Wasington and Beijing

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The market will start the week with concrete bearings, finally, on the Sino-American trade war. On “neutral” grounds, in Switzerland therefore (!), Using and Chinese delegations negotiated this weekend on customs duties. “Constructive” discussions, preliminary to “substantial” advances, which will be the subject of a common press release on Monday.

Friday, CAC 40 managed to grab 0.64% to 7,743 points, against the backdrop of hope for lull in the deadly trade war that Trump waged against the rest of the world.

Earlier in the week, the markets were able to assess the agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, described as “capital” by Donald Trump. This agreement announced Thursday brings customs duties to 10% for many imports from the United Kingdom.

“The agreement places the United Kingdom in a more unfavorable position than before the ‘Liberation Day’, even if the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer described it as a historic victory ‘between the two countries,” said Deutsche Bank. “The details are few, with a few sectoral alleviating, but the basic price of 10% remains in place,” sums up UBS.

“This is good news. I must say that this is good news in a world where the effective rate of customs duties will remain higher than it was before all this begins. I think we have to keep this in mind,” said the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.

In the statistical chapter, “RAS” Thursday concerning the new weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States, at 228,000, very close to the past week, and expectations. Friday morning were published the monthly industry production data in Italy, the third economic power in the euro zone. They only increased in March 0.1%, against expectations much more optimistic at +0.4%.

On the values ​​side, the titles of the defense sector, which became defensive values, have been the subject of profits. The higher decrease in CAC 40, Thales sold 2.8% when on SBF 120, Exosens made 3.8% and Dassault Aviation 3.4%. Société Générale won 0.5%, despite a degradation of UBS which has gone to “buy” neutral “on the value.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares have finished at levels very close to balance, marking the wait-and-see attitude before the Sino-American tariff negotiations.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1230. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.00. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.36%. As for the Vix, it was worth 21.90 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, no major meeting to report. We will follow the conclusions of the Eurogroup meeting (informal monthly meeting of the ministers of the economy and finance of the member states of the euro zone).

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7810.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics