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The Parisian market caps near the technical threshold of the 7,900 points, while the market begins to tell the story – not new! – American debt. Once upon a time, the most powerful country in the world, which had accumulated colossal debt …
And this background subject has returned flash on the screens of the traders, with a warm -up of sovereign rates after the degradation of the American note by the Moody’s agency. The rating agency has deprived the American debt of its precious note AAA to demo it to AA1 with a stable perspective.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump went to the congress, urging Republican elected officials to support his “big and beautiful law”, while important dissensions within the presidential party slow down the examination of this tax project.
However, this vast tax reform could lead to an increase in American debt, which is already unbearable of $ 37,000 billion. “President Trump’s tax bill has intensified concerns about long-term budgetary viability, in particular after Moody’s’s decision to lower the sovereign credit note on the United States on Friday,” said Konstantinos Chrysikos at Kudotrade, before this budgetary mega-law is voted.
The market was wondering yesterday especially about the scope of this text on the trajectory of the debt of the United States. This project could indeed increase the American public debt, already colossal to nearly $ 37,000 billion, of 3.800 billion over the next decade, according to estimates of the Congressional Budget Office (Congress Budget Budget).
In the statistical chapter Thursday, we will note heavy disappointment on the German component of the PMI German services, in the first estimate for the current month, at 47.2 (2.4 points under the target).
“The economy of the euro zone is struggling to regain a foothold. The composite PMI index, which has only suggested low recovery signs since January, highlights a return of contraction in the region’s private sector in May. However, this drop in activity does not result from American customs duties. The entry into force of these new customs tariffs has rather favored a slight recovery of the recently” Rubia, chief economist in Hamburg Commercial Bank.
“Manufacturing production has indeed increased for a third consecutive month while, for the first time since April 2022, the volume of new orders obtained by the manufacturers has not decreased. On the other hand, in the service sector, however less exposed to changes in American commercial policies than the industrial sector (with the exception of specific activities such as international logistics), activity has become the volume for the first time since November 2024. New affairs from abroad has decreased, it is the weakness of domestic demand which seems mainly weighing on the performance of the sector. “
The IFO of the business climate in the first economy in the euro zone (87.5) remains under pressure but without significantly moving away from consensus.
On the values ​​side, Elior closes up 3.8% after the publication of the results of the first half of 2024-2025. The specialist in natural extracts Roberttet won 1.8%after announcing his strategic plan for the next five years and aims for a turnover between 1.1 and 1.2 billion euros by 2030. Strong amplification files were under pressure, like Forvia (-3.86%) or Hermes (-2.36%).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finally finished the session on Thursday at levels close to balance. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, ended at 5,842 points. The short -term lowering figure under the 6,000 points is becoming clearer.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1320. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 60.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.53%. As for the Vix, it was worth 20.28 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the sales of new housing in the United States at 4 p.m. 000.
Key graphics elements
The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful, but the filling of another GAP, that of March 31, invites you to restraint. Especially since the VIX has just returned the terminal of the 20.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7900.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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