EUR/USD: clear lull on the American 10 years

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The Pair of Euro / Dollar currencies found a relatively flat short -term trajectory, against a background of calm on the yields of American sovereign rates, the market finding its spirits after a past weekend agitated on the trade war between Washington and Brussels.

As a reminder, Trump threatened the EU on customs taxes on Friday of 50% on June 1, compared to 10% today. The American president justifies this announcement by the difficulty of commercial negotiations with Europe.

“It is very difficult to deal with the EU, which was created in the first place to take advantage of the United States from a commercial point of view. (…) Our discussions are going nowhere. Under these conditions I recommend that I impose 50% customs duties on the EU, from June 1. There are no customs duties on products manufactured in the United States,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Customs duties applied to European products currently amounted to 12.5% ​​on average, 2.5% corresponding to the level before Donald Trump’s return to the White House, to which have been added 10% since early April and the announcement of his so -called “reciprocal” customs duties. The White House initially planned to tax European products up to 20%, before announcing a 90-day break on customs duties beyond 10%, the time to let the negotiations arrive at their end.

Trump finally rejected his ultimatum, by shifting the deadline for commercial negotiations on July 9. Ursuala von der Leyen called the White House tenant, to request a delay in order to reach a constructive agreement. “Europe is ready to advance negotiations quickly and decisively. To achieve a good agreement, we will need time until July 9,” said the president of the European executive on X.

“This sawtooth reaction highlights an increasingly widespread feeling in the markets: investors no longer consider Trump’s pricing threats as credible economic policy measures, but rather as negotiation tactics,” said Daniela Hathorn, of Capital.com.

In the statistical chapter on Tuesday, the burners learned of the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), both significantly above expectations.

“Consumer confidence has improved in May after five consecutive months of decrease,” said Stéphanie Guichard, the world’s leading economist, in the Conference Board.

“The rebound was already visible before the Sino-American trade agreement of May 12, but has accelerated later. The monthly improvement is largely due to the expectations of consumers, the three components of the expectations of expectations-economic conditions, employment prospects and future income-having progressed compared to their lower April. Consumers were less pessimistic about Next six months and have found their optimism about future income prospects.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the manufacturing index of the Fed de Richmond at 4:00 p.m. on Wednesday as well as the Fed minutes at 8:00 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1325 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The pair of currencies currently succeeds in the highly important graphic test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). A breath of breath is necessary before the conquest of new highests. That is to say the formation of several support on this trend curve.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics