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It is with, on the blackboard, a complex equation, that the European Central Bank (ECB) completes this Thursday a new council of governors. So certainly, the latest inflation data will encourage the powerful financial institution of Frankfurt to lower its rates again, but the questions remain numerous, both geopolitical and commercially.
Latest major development, before a long -awaited phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, the decision of the US commercial court to act unconstitutionality of the customs surcharge application by government decree, the management of the latter being devoted to the Congress.
“If the sales advisor of the White House said that the administration” will seek to promulgate customs duties by other means “, the alternative options remain limited. Admittedly, certain legal provisions allow the president to act but they are strictly supervised, targeted, and generally require prior investigations to be justified. As for the vote of the Congress, it seems unlikely given the small republican majority. developments suggest that the worst is undoubtedly behind us concerning the subject of customs duties.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow the decision of the BCE monetary policy as a priority at 2:15 p.m. and the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m. In the press conference following the rate decision, at 2:45 p.m., C Lagarde will not fail to comment on the German recovery plan, in the form of tax support for companies in the amount of 46 billion euros over five years.
Wednesday in the statistical chapter, the Bover, who were able to read Tuesday of a targeted target on the new job offers (JOLTS), had a relative disappointment with the report of the Cabinet in HR ADP which highlighted positions of the order of only 37,000, significantly in expectations. Verdict at the end of the week with the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report. In addition, the activity of services in the United States, has been against all expectations contracted at 49.9 points in May against 52 expected by consensus, and after 51.6 points in April. Note that a score of less than 50 points means a contraction of the sector considered.
Meet at 2:30 p.m. for the decision proper on the main “rent” of the euro, expected to decrease at 2.15%.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1420 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The pair of currencies currently succeeds in the highly important graphic test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). A breath of breath is necessary before the conquest of new highests. That is to say the formation of several support on this trend curve. We have two of us.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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