(BFM Stock Exchange) – The courses of black gold go up while the two countries continue their offensives. On Saturday, Tel Aviv attacked the South Pars gas field in southern Iran. Oil climbs without blazing.

Under tension, investors, however, keep their composure. Oil prices are riding this Monday, June 16, but do not fly away.

After taking more than 5% overnight, the August contract on the Brent de Mer du Nord, an international reference for black gold prices, won $ 75 a barrel for 1% on Monday morning. Friday, the contract had earned more than 7% after the announcement of the attack on Israel on Iran which had targeted military sites and nuclear infrastructure in the country.

Saturday and Sunday, the offensives of the two countries continued. On Saturday, Tel Aviv attacked the South Pars gas deposit in southern Iran. It is the largest gas reserve in the world, shared between Iran and Qatar.

This bombing shows that Israel does not hesitate to target Iran’s energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg who quotes the Israeli agency Tasnim, this attack, which targeted section 14 of the gas field, forced the closure of a production platform on the gas field.

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The export capacities spared

“The targeting of energy assets represents a new front in the conflict, which broke out on Friday when Israel launched a wave of attacks on the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic,” observes the news agency.

On the date, the attacks between the two countries have not yet had tangible impact on the raw offer. For the time being “the oil and gas installations affected in Iran seem more focused on the country’s supply, rather than on the export market”, explains Michael Wan, of the MUFG bank, quoted by AFP.

Currently, the oil market is well supplied and analyzes fear more than a shortage than a shortage. The producing countries and their allies, gathered within the Cartel OPEC+, also have major reserves capacities, which could compensate for the lost production due to the conflict. “In this context, it would probably need a substantial escalation and real damage to the energy infrastructure of the Gulf for prices to increase further,” said Thomas Mathews, of Capital Economics, also quoted by AFP.

According to the American Energy Agency, Iran is the world ninth producer of oil, with a production valued, in 2023, at 4 million barrels per day, or 4% of the total.

Despite the events of this weekend, “the flow of crude barrels (Iranian, editor’s note) remains uninterrupted”, observes Stephen Innes of AM.

The Strait of Ormuz as a real risk

“Iranian production of 3.3 million barrels per day (B/J) and exports of around 1.7 million barrels per day are currently underway. However, if these barrels are not put online, the planned surplus (on the market, editor’s note) for the fourth quarter will be reduced to nothing and the market will be sub-propelled until the end of the year,” continues the specialist.

Stephen Innes emphasizes above all that “the real fear is not that of the repeated strikes, but that of seeing Tehran attack the Strait of Ormuz, by which passing almost a fifth of the world supplies of oil” every day. “A hostile naval maneuver or a malicious drone on the bad navigation corridor, and the market could collapse by simple reflex,” he judges.

“The 5 million barrels per day of reserve capacity announced by the OPEC seem interesting on paper, but most of them are locked in the same geographic hatch – which is not good if the oilmen cannot get out of the Gulf,” he warns.

In a note published this weekend, Deutsche Bank believes that in the worst scenarios, with the whole of Iranian production erased and the Strait of Ormuz closed, the Brents lessons could go up to 120 dollars per barrel.

“In a more moderate 50% reduction scenario of Iranian exports without greater disruption, the outbreak of oil prices would be limited to current levels, which implies that it is the scenario that is currently taken into account by the market,” wrote the German bank.