CAC 40: Cap on American employment before

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The values ​​very sensitive to the commercial problem, in luxury, spirits or automotive equipment, supported the market, 7 days from July 09, the deadline to which the White House, for lack of agreement with the countries concerned, will apply surcharge to imports.

Pernod-Ricard won 2.32%, Remy Cointreau 2.80%, Christian Dior +3.32%, Kering 3.65%, LVMH 4.15%, Valeo 4.17%, Plastic Omnium 5.38%, and Forvia +9.12%.

Without being clear, however, the Trump administration has suggested that negotiations and potentially the suspension of the heavy customs surcharges, could extend beyond this deadline. Then on Tuesday, the American president said that he did not think of “a break” on customs duties and therefore repelling the mature maturity. The market does not seem frankly to believe it. “It seems almost acquired that a new delay will be announced soon, which should allow to spend the month of July without too many hassles,” comments Christopher Dembik from Pictet AM.

In all cases, the level of customs duties will be much higher than before, in depth transforming the fundamentals of international trade. “In the event of a lasting increase in American customs duties by 15 %, we estimate that global growth will be reduced to 2.4 % in the next 12 months,” quantifies Raphaël Gallardo, chief Economist of Carmignac.

“In the United States, the decline in the confidence of households and business leaders already suggests a marked slowdown in private domestic demand. The labor market should reflect this reflux of” animal spirits “from the third quarter of 2025. The emerging deflation of the prices of new housing will weigh on the wealth effect linked to the real estate. Consumption suggests that all savings reserves have been exhausted. “

In the statistical chapter, the publication of the statistics of the day Wednesday, namely the US employment report of the AdP for the month of June, disappointed. This survey expressed unexpected deterioration in the job market in the United States last month. Some 33,000 jobs were destroyed in June, while the consensus awaited an increase in hires.

It is therefore with the greatest attention that the markets will read this Thursday of the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report, federal relationship on private employment health (excluding agriculture). It is exceptionally published Thursday, due to the closure tomorrow of Wall Street for a holiday (4th of July, Independence Day).

To be complete on the values ​​side, Stmicroelectronics rebounded by 5.3% while UBS judges in a note that the results of the second quarter of the group will push the consensus to review its profit anticipations by Action 2025 “for the first time in several years”.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares experienced notable performance differences on Wednesday – as on Tuesday. The Dow Jones remained stable (-0.02%) while the Nasdaq Composite won 0.94%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.47% at 6,227 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1790. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.26%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.60 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, as a priority, the final data of PMI services in the euro zone for June at 10:00 am, the NFP report on US employment at 2:30 p.m. and the ISM of the American services at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.

First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.

The intermediate support of the 7,500 points nevertheless allowed the flagship index to find oxygen at the end of the week 26. It is already back on an intermediate resistance to 7,700 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7810.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics