GDANSK/London (Reuters) – The deadline granted by President Donald Trump to the main trade partners of the United States to conclude agreements or face a massive increase in customs duties expires next week, ending 90 days of volatility but leaving investors in uncertainty as to the following.

The propensity of the tenant of the White House to use the threat or to impose new surcharges, and then backtrack, caused turbulence in the markets in the last three months, but investors have used this versatility somewhat.

There is therefore no indication that the date of July 9 will be a day of great enthusiasm at the end of the 90-day break granted in April for negotiations. On the contrary, most investors expect a form of delay, break or compromise.

Here is an overview of the situation of the main markets today compared to the moment when Donald Trump launched his first salvo of customs duties on the “Liberation Day” of April 2:

Actions rally

The global scholarships have relied strongly after the intense volatility launched by the announcement of American customs duties in early April.

The MSCI World index, which had lost 10% between April 2 and 9, the day Donald Trump announced the break on his surcharges, reached consecutive records and won more than 11% from the initial announcement of April 2.

The equity markets benefited from a new impetus in May when Washington and Beijing reached a commercial truce in London, suspending numerous mutual customs rights for an additional 90 -day period. The geopolitical tensions, in particular the unpublished strikes of Israel against Iran and the bombing of Iranian nuclear installations by Washington, briefly darken the feeling, but did not derail the general rally.

The S&P 500 index, lagging against its peers at the beginning of the year, has filled these differences, earning more than 10% since April 2, and has elbow with the MSCI World Exa, which does not include any American company.

However, it should be noted that the S&P has only reached its summit in dollars. The weakness of the American currency has eroded the yields of foreign investors. In euros or Swiss francs, for example, the index is still 10% lower than the February record, while in sterling books, it is 7% lower.

The dollar suffers

The greenback, widely considered as the most powerful and stable currency in the world, has seen its reputation shaken by the tariff war.

The dollar index, which reflects the performance of the American currency compared to a basket of six other currencies, including the Japanese euro and yen, has just known its worst semester since 1973, with a decline of 11%. Since April 2, it has lost 6.6%.

Compared to the currencies of some of the main trade partners of the United States, the fall in the dollar was even more marked: it has lost about 8% compared to the euro and Mexican peso since then, and 5% compared to the Canadian dollar.

Vincent Mortier, director of investments at Amundi, the largest European asset manager, believes that the euro still has a major room for maneuver, especially since the concerns about American debt after the approval of the Donald Trump budget congress, continue to weigh on the dollar.

“I would not be surprised if, by the end of next year, we returned to $ 1.30,” he said, stressing that in 2008, the euro had reached $ 1.60.

Exporters in search of certainty

European actions have more than recovered the losses suffered since the “Liberation Day” of the Republican President, but the strength of the euro and the concerns concerning the impact of customs duties kept them below records reached in March.

The main exporting sectors, such as pharmaceutical products and the automobile, which represent approximately a third of EU exports to the United States, have also straightened in recent three months, but have suffered from greater volatility.

Brussels would be open to an agreement with the United States which would apply universal customs duties of 10% on a large number of its exports, which many investors would also welcome favorably. According to Citi, the markets are surprised if Washington returned to a customs duties scenario of 20%, or even 50%.

“Trump is really unpredictable, but if it is really around 10%, I think the markets will react very well,” said Carlo Franchini, responsible for institutional customers at Banca Ifigest.

However, the impact of commercial negotiations goes far beyond Europe, because Japanese car manufacturers are also under pressure.

Citi’s basic scenario is a surcharge of 25%, while a 10% surprise reduction could trigger a 50% rally for Japanese car stocks.

Gold shines

Gold is the classic refuge value against a whole series of risks, from inflation induced by customs duties to geopolitical risks, including doubts over the US dollar.

The price of gold has broken all records, increasing by 26% since the start of the year to reach around $ 3,330 per ounce.

Precious metal has also overshadowed Bitcoin, which has increased by around 14% since the start of the year, and even the NVIDIA artificial intelligence giant, whose shares have skyrocketed in 2024 and have been up around 18% since the start of the year.

The rise in gold has accelerated since April 2, with the effect of purchases of central banks, fund managers and even private investors.

According to a survey carried out this week by UBS Asset Management, 39% of those questioned declared that they planned to increase their national gold assets, against 15% last year.

The independence of the federal reserve – whose president, Jerome Powell, was on several occasions the target of the fury of Donald Trump, who accuses him of being too slow on the rate reductions – is one of the main concerns cited in the survey.

(Report Canadan Sevgili and Alberto Chiumento in Gdansk, Danilo Masoni in Milan and Alun John, Marc Jones and Amanda Cooper in London; Diana Mandia)

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