CAC 40: 7,700 points, summer bariums of courses

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

Refrenged by the RENAULT results warning (-18.47%), the CAC 40 contracted 0.57% on Wednesday at 7,722 points, getting closer to its summer gravity center at 7,700 points.

Renault now anticipates operating margin for 2025 around 6.5% compared to at least 7% previously, and a free cash flow between 1 billion and 1.5 billion euros, against more than 2 billion euros before.

“Although the new margin target remains solid compared to other car manufacturers, we consider the warning on results as an obvious additional blow on market confidence in action,” comments Deutsche Bank. The German bank has saved its course target at 47 euros against 55 euros previously and confirmed its advice to “keep”.

Oddo BHF evokes for its part “a warning that makes a stain”. The broker lowered his target to 55 euros against 60 euros before.

The market remains insensitive to the new customs of Washington. The tenant of the White House now brandishes customs duties in the amount of 30% on imports from the member countries of the European Union. In the meantime, negotiations continue, with additional pressure.

“After having been spared on July 7, the European Union also underwent the American president’s fellow prices this Saturday with the announcement of the entry into force on August 1 of 30% customs duties on all European products imported into the United States. If the countermeasures have already been announced, negotiations are continuing behind the scenes. This situation is all the more comfortable for Donald Trump as it allows A kind of lyric cacophony around customs duties “, analyzes Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion.

For its part, the European Union has, for the time being, has timed as to potential response measures. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Europe still intended to favor “a negotiated solution”.

“As the fateful date of July 9, the Trump administration has sent the first letters announcing new customs rights ranging from 20 % to 50 % to many countries not having signed trade agreements with the United States. At the same time, a decree was signed postponing the entry into force of customs duties to August 1, thus granting an additional period to negotiate an agreement”, summarize the EDMOND Rothschild.

“Trump has also announced its intention to impose an” floor “surcharge of 15 % to 20 % on all products from countries not directly targeted by specific customs duties, a rate higher than the current” standard “rate of 10 %. Now that the” Big Beautiful Bill “has been approved by the two chambers, the American administration must finance this legislation, which will lead to an increase in deficits in the coming years.”

The markets continue to digest the announcement of the savings plan of 43.8 billion euros of the French government for 2026. The Prime Minister, François Bayrou, said he wanted to bring the public deficit to 4.6% in 2026 to increase to 2.8% in 2029. Which, in his plan, will go through a “white year”, in 2026, during which the state expenditure (excluding defense and debt. even as social benefits. This plan, which must be amended and voted by Parliament, is therefore far from final.

In the statistical chapter, the operators have read the production dynamics in production in the United States, stable regardless of the product of products selected. A publication which takes place the day after that of retail prices, at +2.7% in annualized rate, little above expectations for the widest basket of products.

To be complete on the values side, Renault’s setbacks (-18.47%) we trained Stellantis (-6.13%) and the forvia equipment manufacturer (-4.16%) in a sort of sectoral heaviness. Very few files were able to get out of the game on Wednesday: let us quote on the compartment A of the side, Covivio Hotels (+3.51%), Vivendi (+2.63%) and Eramet (+1.78%).

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session on Wednesday slightly increase, like the Dow Jones (+0.53%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.25%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.32% to 6,263 points.

Key graphics elements

The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).

The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).

The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.

The index is currently in the sweater phase (graphic rejection).

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7700.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics