(BFM Stock Exchange) – Goldman Sachs has given itself, in a recent, note, to a rich exercise of lessons. The bank has calculated the exposure of S&P 500 groups to non-American countries and noticed that the 50 most exposed companies to the international survey both the index in its entirety and companies that have revenues focused on the United States. This is due to the weakness of the dollar.

With the uncertainty caused by Donald Trump on customs surcharges, Wall Street has lost its splendor. The S&P 500, its reference index wins, certainly, 7%

Since the start of the year, thanks to good performances in June and on the beginning of July. And investors have learned to put into perspective or even minimize the customs threats of the American president.

“The market generally thinks that it is a negotiation tactic and that such customs duties are unlikely to be applied,” said Deutsche Bank on Monday.

Nevertheless, Wall Street is pale in front of several European markets. The FTSE 100 of London has won 9.8% since the start of the year, the FTSE MIB of Milan takes 17.4% the IBEX 35 of Madrid climbed by 20.7%, and the Dax 40 of Frankfurt advances by 22.4%.

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About 28% of S&P 500 income generated abroad

As we have explained many times, the underperformance of the American markets are explained above all by the economic policy of Donald Trump.

Customs surcharge, but also uncertainties around the American finance bill (the famous “Big, Beautiful, Bill”) and the threats of the American president vis-à-vis the independence of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), caused a certain disenchantment of investors. The latter modified the allocation of their portfolios by strongly reducing their exposure to American assets, such as actions, to the benefits of other geographic areas.

However, the performance of the S&P 500 hides disparities. What a recent note by Goldman Sachs shows.

In a study published Monday, July 14, the bank screened the exposure of the residents of the index (in terms of turnover) to their domestic country (the United States, therefore) and abroad. To do this, the bank peeled the stock market reports of the various companies.

Goldman Sachs pulled a series of very interesting data. For example, the bank calculated that the global exposure of the S&P 500 (based on some $ 17,000 billion in turnover) abroad was 28% and that sales in China only represented 2% (a figure to be put into perspective, however, because many companies actually evoke their revenues generated in “Asia-Pacific). For Europe, the rate drops to 5%.

In addition, only one sector derives more than half of its revenues abroad, namely tech with a rate of 56%, driven by semiconductors (67%).

50 companies including Netflix and Meta

The most salient point of the American bank’s note is other. Since the beginning of the year, on the date of publication of the report, the companies of the S&P 500 having the share of their most important sales abroad clearly outpens the S&P 500 in its entirety, and even more companies whose revenues are concentrated in the United States.

Goldman Sachs retained 50 companies with the most internationalized income. The median exposure of these companies abroad is 70% among these 50 S&P 500 groups are Meta (64% revenue abroad), Netflix (59%), Mastercard and Visa (70% and 59% respectively) Qualcomm (75%), Broadcom (75%), Philip Morris International (100% because the historic American activities of Philip Morris are gathered in the company Altria) or Estée Lauder (75%) and Mondelez (74%).

For the 50 most “domestic” companies, the bank notably selected Verizon (0%) Wells Fargo (0%), or the Target store chain (0%). The median exposure of these companies to countries outside the United States is 0%.

Goldman Sachs observes that the shares of the 50 most “international” S&P 500 groups display a stock market performance of 10.8% over the whole of 2025. It is more than the index (7.2% on the date of publication of the bank’s note) and much more than the 50 most “domestic” companies, which only take 3.6% over the same period.

This is all the more striking since, over a long period, since 2007 in the Goldman Sachs note, performance tends to get closer ( +466% for the 50 most internationalized companies, +480% for the S&P 500, +376% for “domestic” companies)

It should be noted in passing that companies with the most sales abroad display more generous multiple valuation. According to Goldman Sachs, their actions are exchanged on average 22.8 times the profit per share over twelve months, against 19.8 times for the S&P 500 and 16.3 times for “domestic” companies. Often, international groups can evolve in emerging markets or rapidly growing sectors, which can justify higher valuations.

Not necessarily victims

To return to the performance of 2025, how to explain that these 50 companies with very internationalized income do better than the others? The idea seems counter-intuitive in view of current trade tensions, which should, on the contrary, bring investors to favor companies with a strong local exhibition.

Note in passing that in view of the diversity of the sample in terms of companies (50 therefore) and the sectors represented (eleven) it is not possible to invoke a particular logic, applying to the actions of a specific compartment. Even if Netflix, McDonald’s and Philipp Morris International are part of the values that we had identified who resist the customs storm very well, in a previous article.

Two sources of explanation must be highlighted. First of all, it should be recalled that American surcharge do not directly threaten the American groups that make the bulk of their revenues abroad. These are more exposed to the risks of commercial response from the United States partners, such as China.

The direct “victims” of American customs duties are actually companies that import raw materials, components, or foreigners to sell them on American soil. This is the case, for example, of car manufacturers.

Bernstein wrote in November that Stellantis and Volkswagen imported Mexico and Canada around 40% of volumes sold in the United States, a rate that drops around 30% for General Motors and around 25% for Ford. Another example: Nike. The producer of sporting goods designs 95% of his shoes in three foreign countries (Vietnam, Indonesia and China), a rate that increases to 61% for clothing (in Vietnam, China and Cambodia) according to Bank of America.

The advantage of a low dollar

The most important explanation of this outperformance of internationalized companies is delivered by Goldman Sachs itself. “The weakening of 7% since the start of the year of the US dollar weighted according to trade has supported the performance of the actions of American companies turned to the international,” she said.

The weakness of the dollar promotes American exports abroad. In addition, they allow exchange gains. The lower the greenback in the face of other currencies, the more the income generated by American companies in these last currencies are raised once converted into dollars.

“This is where the real impulse comes from,” said CNBC Art Hogan, market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. “For a long time, the strength of the dollar has been an unfavorable factor. It has become a buoyant wind this year, and it will start to manifest when we see business results,” he added.

Since the start of the year, the dollar has suffered, in fact against other currencies. The greenback drops by 10.7% against the euro and the index ofx, which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of large currencies, dives by 9%.

We had detailed, recently, the reasons for the fall of the “Dollar King”. Due to the disaffection of investors for American assets explained at the start of this article, market operators have reduced their positions on American securities (stocks, bonds) to reinvest in foreign assets.

This movement ultimately returns to sell dollars to buy other currencies. And the incessant pressures of Donald Trump on the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, only strengthened the trend.

Deutsche Bank feared in April “a crisis of confidence” on the American motto. In June, in its economic and market forecasts for the second half, the German bank considered that, regardless of future decisions of the Trump administration “the evil is done” on the dollar. “Only the future will tell us to what extent the dollar has been damaged,” she insisted. The German bank thinks that the dollar will drop again and anticipate a Eurodollar at 1.20 at the end of the year against 1.16 today.