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It is intense green that colors the heart of the week, the Parisian market being confident in an “acceptable” outcome in the commercial negotiations between Washington and Beijing. According to diplomatic sources close to the file, cited on France Info, customs surcharge could reach 15%, far from the 30% Brandi initially.
Yesterday was the conclusion of an agreement between Tokyo and Washington which gave hope on this thorny commercial file. Donald Trump announced in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday to a “huge” agreement with Japan which brings customs duties imposed on Japanese imports to 15%, much less than the 25% which threatened to strike the archipelago from August 1. This agreement mainly revives the hope that other positive announcements will follow as the deadline of August 1 approaches.
A translation of this market psychology in terms of values: the automotive sector (including equipment manufacturers), very sensitive to the exporting problem, has fully benefited from the renewed appetite for the risk of operators. OPPOBILITY won 3.87%, Forvia 2.97%, Valeo 5.34%, and Stellantis 8.96%. Luxury was also wanted, like LVMH (+3.09%), Christian Dior (+3.11%), Kering (+4.94%).
The operators will also have a careful eye this Thursday at the end of the Council of Governors of the European Central Bank.
After seven consecutive drops, the ECB is expected to be at the end of this Governors’ Council on Thursday, validate a break from the Euro “rent”. David Zahn, head of European bond management at Franklin Templeton, anticipates: “The ECB should maintain its unchanged rates, a drop in September remains possible but unlikely. The markets will be attentive to Christine Lagarde’s speech concerning commercial risks and the strength of the euro. Inflation is close to the objective, but tariff threats combine the prospects. will determine the reaction of the markets. “
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Wednesday session in the green like the Dow Jones (+1.14%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.61%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.78% at 6,358 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1730. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 65.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.37%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.50 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow a battery of PMI activity indicators (barometers based on investigations between purchasing directors) as a priority. Synthetic data for the entire euro zone will be published at 10:00 am, before the BCE conclusions (2:15 p.m. for the monetary decision and 2:45 p.m. for the press conference). In addition to Atlantic, to follow weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m. and PMI at 3:45 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).
The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).
The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.
The index has just validated a phase of sweater (graphic rejection).
A tidy (lateral channel) with an amplitude of 400 points is sketching, between 7,500 and 7,900 points. It is this resistance to 7,900 points that is currently tested.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 7700.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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