CAC 40: Rebound in perspective

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The European and American markets closed last week in clear decrease, penalized in particular by disappointing publications. In France, Teleperformance and Saint-Gobain weighed on the performance of the CAC 40. In the United States, Amazon disappointed investors with mixed results in the cloud, resulting in the entire technological compartment in its wake.

On the macroeconomic level, the creations of non-agricultural jobs have slowed heavily in the United States, reaching 73,000 in July, after a revision at 14,000 for the month of June. This slowdown signal strengthens anticipation of a drop in rates in September, now integrated at 81 % by markets according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

In this tense context, Donald Trump shaped the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), accusing him, without providing evidence, of manipulating the data. This decision arouses strong criticism, fueling fears about the independence of official economic statistics.

In preview this Monday, advanced indicators suggest a technical rebound in CAC 40, after a fall of almost 3 % on Friday. Several values should animate the session.

In the banking sector, BNP Paribas has displayed solid resistance to resistance tests published by the European Banking Authority.

In luxury, Kering would be in advanced discussions to give in a prestigious building located via Montenapoleone in Milan, acquired for 1.3 billion euros in April 2024. According to the Italian press, a majority assignment to a member of the royal family of Qatar would be envisaged, to an equivalent valuation. The operation would aim to reduce the group’s debt.

Finally, Airbus would have delivered 63 planes in July, against 77 over the same period last year. This drop is attributable to a shortage of engines impacting the A320neo program. The manufacturer remains confident, however, as to the achievement of its annual objective of 820 deliveries, focusing on acceleration in the second half.

Key graphics elements

Technically, the index has returned to the lower terminal of its trading range of consolidation, around 7,500 points, an area considered attractive to the medium -term purchase. A rebound towards the 7,900 points remains possible in the coming weeks. At first, operators will be able to target the top of the Friday candle, corresponding to the low terminal of the lower gap, then secondly aim for the full filling of the GAP.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 7512.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics