(BFM Stock Exchange) – The Parisian index has returned to the rise on Monday, August 4. The trend was carried by anticipation of Fed rates after the publication of poor American employment figures last Friday.

The Paris Stock Exchange managed to make investors forget a gloomy Friday which had resulted in a fall of almost 3% of the CAC 40. This Monday, August 4, the Parisian star index remobilized, bouncing from 1.14% to 7,632.01 points.

Friday’s session had represented an explosive cocktail combining results from disappointing companies and a risk aversion climate caused by the increase in American customs duties in certain countries (Canada, Switzerland). To top it all, the American Labor and Statistics Office has published disappointing employment figures, with severe downward revisions for the previous two months.

A drop in Fed rates in September?

“Together, these revisions show that employment in May and June was 258,000 lower than what had been previously announced, which suggests that the labor market could cool faster than initially,” said John Plassard de Cité Gestion.

After this disappointment, the market begins to anticipate rate drops from the American federal reserve. “These weak signals may well encourage the federal reserve to quickly soften its monetary policy,” writes John Plassard.

According to Deutsche Bank, the probability of a drop in Fed rate in September, as anticipated by the market, increased to 87% on Friday, against 40% before the publication of the US employment report.

In addition, “the resignation Friday of the governor of the Fed, Adriana Kugler, offers President Trump the opportunity to appoint a new member to the board of directors. This person could be prepared to succeed President Powell or, at the very least, represent another voter favorable to an accommodating monetary policy”, explains Deutsche Bank.

As for customs duties, American president Donald Trump said on Monday that he intended to increase “significantly” the surcharge on India if it continues to buy Russian oil.

“India does not only buy huge amounts of Russian oil, it then resells a large part of this oil on the market to make significant profits,” said the American president. “This is why I will considerably increase customs duties paid by India in the United States,” he said in a publication on his social network Truth.

Air France-KLM powered by Barclays

On the values side, Air France-KLM jumped more than 14% carried by a recovery of recommendation from Barclays. The establishment underlined the good dynamic of Air France thanks to its exhibition to the “Premium” category on leisure customers.

Bonduelle, on the other hand, won 9.5% after reporting a vigorous dynamic in North America in the last quarter of its 2024-2025 exercise.

Airbus took over 1.90% supported by Jefferies which now sees the Airbus action climbing more than 30% and that of Safran (+2.6%) of more than 20%, in a note devoted to groups of its coverage universe in the aeronautical-defense sector.

In other markets, the euro lost 0.2% against the dollar at $ 1.1569. Oil is retreating. The October contract on the Brent de Mer of the North cedes 0.55% to 69.29 dollars while that of September on the WTI listed in New York restores 0.65% to 66.89 dollars per barrel.