CAC 40: The drop -down gap is resistor

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Tuesday’s session was marked by a relapse of the main American clues, penalized by the publication of an ISM index of disappointing services, fell to 50.1 in July against 50.8 in the previous month. This level, close to the contraction threshold, rekindled fears of a marked slowdown in the American economy. At the end, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq100, and the Dow Jones fell, despite the strong progression of certain titles like Palant and Pfizer, doped by results superior to expectations. The market remains under pressure, between anticipation of a rate drop in September (90 % probability) and increasing concerns linked to the commercial policy of Donald Trump, which threatens to further increase customs duties on Europe, India and Switzerland.

In this tense context, European markets are expected to increase slightly at the opening this Wednesday, carried by an avalanche of results of companies, in particular Commerzbank, Novo Nordisk, Beiersdorf, or even Zalando. The retail figures for the euro zone at 11:00 am will also provide a key indicator on the vigor of consumption.

On the business side, Commerzbank surprised positively despite a drop of 14 % of its net profit to 462 million euros, linked to restructuring charges. The bank has noted its forecast of net income at 2.5 billion euros for the year and announced a program to buy stock of 1 billion, in a defense strategy against the ambitions of Unicredit. The title took advantage of this announcement and the improvement of perspectives, with a return target to equity brought to 15 % by 2028.

Conversely, Novo Nordisk worries. The Danish group missed expectations in the second quarter, with an operating result of 33.4 billion crowns, against 34.4 expected. Penalized by competition from Eli Lilly and the persistence of generic versions of Wegovy in the United States, Novo lowered his 2025 perspectives. The title, withdrawn by 64 % over a year, struggles to convince despite the arrival of a new CEO.

Another notable publication: Beiersdorf disappointed with organic growth limited to 2.1 % in the first half, and revises its forecasts downwards, due to a slowdown in demand in skin care. This publication could influence L’Oréal and other luxury giants.

Eutelsat has an increase in turnover (+2.5 %) thanks to Leo satellites, but profitability is crumbling with a net loss that flies to more than a billion euros.

Teleperformance tries to recover after two fall sessions. The group has as a reminder given its net profit falling at 249 million euros and its turnover increased by only 0.8 %, against a backdrop of distrust around its new “Future Forward” strategy.

In the United States, the technological values linked to the AI were strongly scrutinized last night after the fence. Indeed, AMD published a BPA down 30 %, but beat expectations, with rapidly growing income (+32 %). The group remains confident for the second half, carried by the request in AI and PC.

Super Micro Computer, on the other hand, disappointed the entire line: turnover and profit below expectations, and severe lowering of targets for 2026 (33 billion dollars against 40 billion before). The title plunged, victim of the extreme selectivity of investors in this segment. Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise take advantage of this fall back from their competitor: Dell takes up his forecasts, HPE exceeds expectations, capitalizing on their customer base and their execution capacity.

Key graphics elements

Technically, the Parisian index once again failed in contact with the lower Gap created last week, which acts as resistance. As long as this threshold is not crossed at the end, the sellers will keep the advantage and will be able to target a withdrawal to the 7,500 points. This day the index should be opening again to try its luck to cross the resistance.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 7512.00 points.

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