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The exchange market remains marked by great caution. The Euro/Dollar pair is evolving in a narrow area, torn between geopolitical developments linked to the conflict in Ukraine and the expectation of the Jackson Hole symposium, which is scheduled to start this week.
On the political level, Washington seeks to reposition his role in peace negotiations. Donald Trump assured Volodymyr Zelensky that the United States would support security guarantees for Ukraine, but in coordination with European partners rather than a direct military commitment. The hypothesis of a Zelensky-Poutine meeting in the coming weeks maintains the idea of a possible reduction in tensions, without bringing for the time of certainty. The energy markets follow this file closely: a de -escalation could modify the balance of the global supply, by making Russian oil more accessible again.
On the monetary side, attention is now focused on the federal reserve. The speech of Jerome Powell expected Friday at Jackson Hole should be decisive to clarify the trajectory of guiding rates. Investors are counting on at least two drops by the end of the year, but the latest American economic statistics – employment in slowing down and persistent tensions on production prices – complicate reading. This context maintains high implicit volatility on the pair, even if the volumes of exchange remain reduced due to the summer period.
On the technical level, the euro benefits from solid support: the European motto rebounds on its upward mobile averages, confirming a still positive substantive trend. The Bollinger bands are gradually tightening, signal from a current lateral consolidation phase. This behavior reflects the expectation of a major catalyst – probably the Fed’s speech to Jackson Hole – to stimulate a new short -term direction.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,1677 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is at 1.2000 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1380 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 323 pips and the risk of loss is 297 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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