(BFM Stock Exchange) – The Swiss bank has noted its forecasts on the evolution of the precious metal, still seeing it progress by the end of the year, before reaching 3,700 dollars in mid -2026.

Even if its inexorable ascent has (a little) slowed down, gold continues to display an impressive performance this year. Precious metal has an increase of 28.2% since the beginning of the year, more than the major world stockfulness indices.

“Gold is back at the top of the performance classification of the asset classes for 2025: its increase of 28% since the start of the year surpasses all the main stock and bond indices, the currencies of the G10 and even Bitcoin”, writes UBS in a note published this Tuesday, August 19.

Gold had notably reached new records two weeks ago, following press information reporting that the US administration would impose customs surcharge on imports of certain types of ingots, which threatened to increase the cost of ‘trading’ (market operations) in the Place de New York.

The US administration then promised to rectify the shot and Donald Trump himself declared on his social social network that the gold bars would not undergo customs from customs.

Now that this uncertainty is lifted, UBS has updated its forecasts and its course objectives on precious metal.

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Gold surpasses bitcoin

In its note published on Monday, the Swiss bank maintained its lens of courses on the ounce of gold at 3,500 dollars at the end of 2025 but noted it at 3,600 dollars at the end of March 2026 (against 3,500 dollars previously) and 3,700 dollars at the end of June (against 3,500 dollars). Currently, the Once d’Or is exchanging around 3.382 dollars.

Several reasons lead the Swiss bank to judge that gold will continue to grow in the coming months.

“First of all, we believe that the combination of persistent inflation in the United States (the effects of customs duties and the repression of immigration is not yet fully felt), of American growth lower than the trend, which should encourage the Fed (the American Federal Reserve, editor’s note) to resume its monetary softening, and a new general depreciation of the US dollar Gold “, explains the Swiss bank.

Fed dedollarization and independence

As a reminder, lower rates tend to support gold. Unlike actions (with dividends) and obligations (with coupons), gold does not produce income. Its course is therefore helped by a decrease in interest rates, because it then becomes more and more interesting to invest your money in gold rather than placing it.

In addition, gold courses being denominated in dollars, a drop in the American currency makes gold purchases less expensive for investors whose reference currency is not the dollar, all other things being equal.

In addition to these fairly mechanical factors, UBS thinks that several factors of uncertainty in the coming months will strengthen the attraction of metal.

“Trends in dedollarization, questions relating to the independence of the Fed and the viability of the budgetary situation of the United States (in particular if the Supreme Court invalidates the ‘reciprocal’ customs ” tax rights imposed by the administration) should remain at the center of the concerns of investors until 2026″, lists UBS.

The bank also notes that the mid-term elections in the United States will occur in the fall of 2026. This should still support gold demand from investors looking for security.

“We plan that these factors will lead to a new increase in investment demand, recent data from the World Gold Council (WGC) indicating the most important flows to ETF (index funds, editor’s note) in the first half since 2010,” said UBS.