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Eventually digesting the quarterly copy of Nvidia, solid but subject to questions, and considering different French political scenarios, the Parisian market ended close to the balance Thursday, in a session marked graphically by the complete and precise filling of the Tuesday lowering gap.
The graphic processor specialist has delivered online results with expectations for his second quarter. But its income target for the current quarter has disappointed the most optimistic expectations, due to uncertainties on H20 flea deliveries in China.
The black point of the publication lies in income prospects for the current quarter. For this period which runs from the beginning of August to the end of October, the company said revenue a turnover around $ 54 billion. This figure implies growth over a year of 54% for the period, in deceleration compared to those of the two previous quarters (56% for the second and 69% for the first).
This forecast turns out, on paper, online with the consensus (the average forecast of analysts) visible Alpha, located around 53.54 billion dollars. But Gene Munster, manager at Deepwater AM, explains that Wall Street was waiting for a figure closer to $ 55 billion and Bloomberg notes that certain estimates were housed around $ 60 billion.
“These perspectives strengthen concern about the fact that the pace of investments in AI systems is unbearable,” writes the news agency.
On French political news, the market remains suspended from the whole of the French Prime Minister, François Bayrou, before the deadline of September 08 and a vote of confidence in the Assembly. Going so far as to denounce “the comfort of boomers”, the Palois said he was ready to discuss “everything”, except from the bottom of the question, that is to say a budgetary effort of 44 billion euros. Suffice to say that the probabilities of a vote of trust in the majority of deputies are Epsilonesque at this stage.
Among the scenarios that the market envisages, a resignation of the government, followed by an appointment of a new Prime Minister, to the different political color. Unless a new dissolution of the National Assembly rebuts the cards. A scenario whose probability is estimated at 65% by Wilfrid Galand, Director – Strategist at Montpensier Finance.
“Volatility could then be strong, according to the various surveys and up to the elections (which must be held within a minimum of 20 days and 40 days maximum after the dissolution decree. It could affect all the assets of the euro zone including the single currency, with France always on the front line. An output of the yield at 10 years from the OAT to 4% is a risk.”
At a time when we write these lines, French 10 years exceeds 3.50, against 3.42% for its Greek counterpart.
“In this context, the reaction of the ECB would be eagerly awaited,” continues the active management decision maker. “The use of emergency stabilization mechanisms in the euro area remains a possibility that could quickly be on the table of governors in Frankfurt, in close coordination with the authorities of the European Union. For the sake of preserving the integrity of the monetary union, the Frankfurt institution could not remain inactive and the pressure will be important on Christine Lagarde.”
On the values ​​side, Renault signed the highest increase in CAC 40 (+3.6%) followed by Kering (+2.4%). Luxury continues to be well since LVMH won 2.2%. Pernod Ricard finally finished up 1.4% after delivering mixed results for his 2025-2026 fiscal year. On the one hand, the profitability and generation of cash exceeded expectations, on the other the prospects were disappointing. Excluding CAC 40, Eiffage lost 2.5% after publishing a current operating profit of 2% in expectations in the first half, according to Oddo BHF.
In the macroeconomic chapter, no difference in consensus on weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, in the immediate vicinity of the 230,000 new units. On the other hand, the preliminary data of T2 GDP exceeded the very first estimates, at +3.3% at an annual rate.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.16%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.53%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, screened 0.32% to 6,500 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1670. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 64.60. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.20%. As for the Vix, it was worth 14.43 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the PCE prices as a priority (Personal consumption Expenditures), the FED’s favorite inflation gauge.
Fed, which is very likely to turn to a decrease of 25 basic points of the dollar rent next month after its monetary policy committee. A FOMC which will be followed all the more than during the Jackson Hole symposium, the boss of the powerful monetary institution paved the way for a little more flexibility. In any case, the Fedwatch tool of the CME Group is 88.2% the probabilities of a 25 -point contraction of the Fed Funds.
The PCEs (excluding the volatile elements that are energy and food) are expected to rise stable by 0.3%.
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7940.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7682.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
