by Bertrand de Meyer

Paris (Reuters) -The main European scholarships are expected with low increase or downward variations on Monday at the opening while the risks accumulate on the return from the holidays.

The term contracts suggest an opening up 0.14% for the Parisian CAC 40, against a decline of 0.01% for the FTSE in London, a thrust of 0.11% for the Dax in Frankfurt, and a revaluation of 0.02% for the Stoxx 600.

The month of September, which historically marks strong fluctuations on the markets with the revaluation of portfolios, promises to be risky for investors.

In Europe, the political situation in France with the vote of trust requested by Prime Minister François Bayrou on September 8 could lead to the fall of the government and feed the political instability which weighs on the prospects for growth.

Investors should also be attentive to PMIs for the manufacturing sector in France, Germany, Euro Zone and Germany which will be published at the start of the session.

On the commercial level, an American court of appeal judged on Friday that most of the customs duties imposed by President Donald Trump were illegal, a decision which should be appealed to the Supreme Court.

“We are planning a final decision between March and June 2026. In the meantime, customs duties remain in force and we therefore expect a moderate market reaction,” Barclays’ analysts reacted on Sunday.

In the United States, uncertainties also persist around the independence of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) after the dismissal of the Governor Lisa Cook, which should give rise to a long legal battle, while investors are waiting for data on job creations this week in order to refine their monetary policy scenarios.

The geopolitical risks also remain at a high level with the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and the search for a new world order by China.

Variations in clues should still remain limited on Monday, Wall Street being closed for Labor Day.

The values ​​to follow: [L8N3UL11U]

A Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange ended down on Friday, weighed down by the poor performance of Dell, Nvidia and other values ​​related to artificial intelligence (IA).

The Dow Jones .DJI index fell 0.20% to 45,544.88 points.

The wider S & P-500 .SPX sold 0.64% to 6,460.26 points the day after a closing record.

The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC lost 1.15% to 21,455.55 points.

Dell fell by almost 9%, one of the strongest decrees of the S&P 500, despite the recovery of its annual prospects, due to the manufacturing cost deemed high of its servers optimized for AI on the background of increased competition.

Nvidia lost 3.4%, its third consecutive decrease session since the publication last Wednesday, of its quarterly results lower than market expectations.

In Asia

The Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 1.37%, weighed down by the values ​​of the flea sector which plunge following strong drops in the sector at Wall Street on Friday.

In China, the clues evolve up after the PMI manufacturers published on Sunday and Monday.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng index increased by 1.92%, the SSE Composite of Shanghai is strengthened by 0.30%, the CSI 300 of 0.36%.

RATE

German yields are rather stable on Monday.

The yield of the ten years German takes 2 bp at 2.7443%, that of the rate at two years 0.4 pb to 1.9488%.

Changes

The dollar is rather stable on Monday while investors awaiting the publication of data on job creations for the month of August in order to refine their anticipations of decrease in Fed rates.

The dollar loses 0.11% against a basket of reference currencies, the euro gains 0.33% at 1.1722 dollars, and the Sterling 0.16% book at 1.3525 dollars.

In Asia, the yen declines 0.12% to 146.85 yen for a dollar, the Australian dollar took 0.05% to 0.6543 dollars.

OIL

Oil prices are slightly decreased on Monday with concerns related to the increase in production and the consequences of American customs duties on demand.

Brent barrel fell 0.33% to 67.26 dollars and that of American light crude (WTI) lost 0.31% to $ 63.81.

Main economic indicators at the September 1 agenda:

Pays GMT indicator previous consensus period

Fr 07:50 PMI Final for the August 49.9 49.9 sector

manufacturing

From 07:55 PMI Final for the August 49.9 49.9 sector

manufacturing

EZ 08:00 PMI Final for the August 50.5.5.5 sector

manufacturing

GB 08:30 PMI Final for the August 47.3 47.3 sector

manufacturing

EZ 9:00 am unemployment rate July 6.2% 6.2%

(Written by Bertrand de Meyer, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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