by Diana Mandia

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European scholarships are expected on a cautious note Thursday at the opening, while investors assess the lull on the bond and the hopes of a drop in interest rates by the American federal reserve (Fed) this month.

The term contracts on indices suggest an opening down 0.07% for the Parisian CAC 40 and 0.01% for the Dax in Frankfurt while the FTSE in London could grab 0.02%. The Stoxx 600 should open unchanged.

The markets find their calm after having started the month of September in a gloomy atmosphere, marked by a massive sale of long -term bonds worldwide, including in France, where Prime Minister François Bayrou is likely to be overthrown by a vote of trust next Monday in a context of budget cuts, which has increased the differential between the German Bund and the French OAT to more than 80 bp.

In Japan, also subject to tensions on its bond market due to political uncertainties, a contract for state bonds at 30 years took place without incident on Thursday, which contributes to general appeasement.

Hopes on the monetary policy of the American federal reserve also help confidence.

The bets on a drop in rates in September were reinforced after the publication on Wednesday of data on job offers below forecasts. Thursday, data from the ADP survey on private employment and weekly unemployment benefits will be a new test on the US economy before the key report on employment scheduled for Friday.

The beige book of the Fed also brushed a mixed table of economic health in the United States on Wednesday, which seems to highlight the concerns of monetary policy officials. Ing analysts have described the report as “rather dark” and emphasize that it is “full of warnings on prices related to customs duties”.

The values ​​to follow:

A Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange finished in dispersed order on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 in the green while Alphabet (+9.14%) benefited from a favorable court decision in the context of an anti -competitive dispute and the investors were optimistic about interest rates.

The Dow Jones index sold 0.06%, Standard & Poor’s 500, wider, took 0.51%and the Nasdaq Composite advanced on its side of 1.03%.

In Asia

The Nikkei index in Tokyo took 1.53%, helped by Tech in the wake of Wall Street the day before.

In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 1.85% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations abandoned 2.6%, penalized by taking profits on technological values.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 0.99%.

RATE

The bond market remains rather calm, with the yield of Treasuries at ten years slightly increased at 4.2148%, just like that of its counterpart at two years, which evolves at 3.6166%.

In Germany, the yield of the German Bund at ten years fell slightly to 2.7363% and in France, that of the OAT in the same scope evolves at 3.5445%, also on low variations.

Yields of long rates of the first two economies in the euro zone are also stable on Thursday, while that of the British obligation at 30 years old takes 2.2 base points at 5.625%.

A long -term French debt program, scheduled for Thursday, should be followed carefully.

In Japan, long rates yields stabilize after a 30 -year bond adjudication has recorded a 3.31 offers coverage ratio. If the demand has been the lowest since June, the membership rate has been sufficient to end, for the moment, to the wave of concern that had taken over the bond market.

The yield of Japanese bonds at 30 years loses almost 3 bp to 3.26% after reaching a record level of 3.28% earlier this week.

Changes

The dollar grabbed 0.04% against a basket of reference currencies, while the euro fell 0.01% to 1.1660 dollar.

OIL

Oil prices further retreat after losing 2% during the previous session, while OPEC+ should consider a new increase in production at a meeting on Sunday, according to sources.

Brent loses 0.75% at 67.11 dollars per barrel and light American crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) cedes 0.78% to 63.47 dollars.

Main economic indicators at the September 4 agenda:

Pays GMT indicator previous consensus period

EZ 9:00 am retail sales July +2.4% +3.1%

– over one year -0.2% +0.3%

USA 12:15 p.m. Private employment (ADP survey) August 65,000 104,000

USA 12:30 p.m. Weekly registrations at SEM. at 30 230,000 229,000

unemployment August

USA 2:00 p.m. ISM index of the services August 51.0 50.1

(Written by Diana Mandia, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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