CAC 40: on the center of gravity of a large range

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Taking advantage of a lull on the bond front, the CAC 40 nibbled 0.86% to 7,719 points, not without nervousness at the heart of its lateral work band, namely a tidy Delimited Pat The 7,500 points (support) and the 7,940 points (resistance). The yield of the French sovereign obligation due to 10 years (OAT10 years) touched on Wednesday 3.54 after having surreptitiously exceed 3.60% the day before, while the fall of the Bayrou government, in five days, seems inevitable.

“In France, it is unlikely that François Bayrou will survive the vote of confidence. A watered -down budget could be adopted, knowing that the major risk lies in the holding of early elections. French assets, including sovereign bonds, should remain under short -term pressure, but the risk of degradation is undoubtedly already integrated into the courses”, tranche César Perez Ruiz, Wealth Management.

And it is precisely this risk of “watered down” budget, and a downward review of the savings of 44 billion euros presented, which has set out the bond markets since the Prime Minister’s announcement to request the confidence of the Parliament. To the point of fear of a sanction of the famous rating agencies.

“The next important announcement of a rating agency will be that of Fitch on September 12 (that is to say immediately after the vote of trust of September 8). However, Fitch had already supposed in its evaluation of March 14 that the Bayrou government would fail and that early elections would take place in the second half of 2025”, note the economists of Nomura.

“Although there are reasons to think that a degradation on September 12 is not necessary, the fact that Fitch has already placed France under a negative perspective and that France has a rating similar to that of the United Kingdom (which we consider much less worrying both on the budget and politics) presents obvious risks of degradation. Nevertheless, the rating agencies are generally very slow to carry out degradations. So we have to expect degradations, but the process could be progressive. “

In the statistical chapter, investors also learned in the morning of encouraging data relating to the activity of the private sector in Europe. Compiled by S&P Global, the composite index of the final purchase directors (PMI) of the euro zone, increased at 51.0 in August, against 50.9 in July. They also took note of the last JOLTS report in the American Labor Department on job offers. This report showed a stronger decrease than expected from job offers in July, at 7.181 million against 7.357 million in June. An interesting benchmark before the publication this Thursday of the investigation of the Private Cabinet ADP and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, and especially Friday of the NFP report, traditional federal monthly report on private employment health across the Atlantic.

“The report on non-agricultural employment in the United States will provide an idea of ​​the potential magnitude of the drop in Fed rates this year. Its president, Jerome Powell, said that the labor market is now primarily on inflation in central bank decisions,” commented César Perez Ruiz, investment manager and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management.

Economists interviewed expect a slight increase in unemployment on an average of 4.3% of the active population, and 74,000 net of positions.

On the values ​​side, Valneva jumped more than 10%, after announcing positive data for its candidate vaccine against Lyme disease, the VLA 15. In reverse of the trend, Derichebourg dropped by 10.4% after lowering its profitability target for its 2024-2025 closed exercise in late September.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session in dispersed order, the Dow Jones contracting by 0.05% and the composite gaining 1.02% with the training effect of Google (now alphabet). The S & P500, reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.51% to 6,448 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1650. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63.40. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.21%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.35 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the survey of the HR CDP cabinet at 2:15 p.m., weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m. and the ISM activity barometer at 4:00 p.m., for as many American indicators.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7940.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7682.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics