(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.
Unsurprisingly, the verdict fell, and with him the government of François Bayrou, who resigned to the President of the Republic after the failure of the national representation vote. An outcome very widely anticipated by the Parisian market, whose flagship index closed (before the vote of deputies) up 0.78% to 7,734 points.
Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM, sheds light on this relative lack of reaction on the market, even though this vote risks ringing the end of a budget project marked by 44 billion euros in savings.
“French political setbacks are not new and, above all, they do not provoke financial contagion to the rest of the euro zone. Rightly or wrongly, investors consider that France is” too big to fail “. In the worst case, they consider that the ECB will intervene by temporarily buying and on the Catimini a little of our debt – as it did in December 2024 after the Government Barnier fall.”
Friday, the Fitch agency will return its verdict on the sovereign note of France. On March 14, the famous and influential rating agency gave an “AA-” with a negative perspective to our country.
“The rates of French bonds (OAT at 10 years) are under pressure, treated at levels similar to those of Greece and Italy, around 3.50 %. The deviations with these countries are now insignificant, suggesting that investors consider the OAT as equivalent to sovereign debts of lower quality, although France benefits from an aa- compared to BBB and BBB- Italy and Greece, which can suggest a gap of rating agencies in their evaluation, “observes Andrea Tueni, responsible for market activities at Saxo Banque.
In the meantime, it is the prospect of lower rate of the Fed, this month, which relieves the equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic. Perspective reinforced by the content of the latest employment health bulletin.
The content of this NFP (Non farm payrolls) only confirms the (very) slight deterioration of private employment health across the Atlantic. In detail, this federal report for the whole month of August highlights a slight increase in the unemployment rate, to 4.3% of the active population, in the target defined by consensus. Target also reached for the average increase in hourly wages (+0.3%). On the other hand – and it is there that the rub -, the creations of posts in the private sector excluding agriculture, expected to decrease at 75,000, in fact point to 22,000.
“This employment report corroborates the thesis of a strong slowdown in the labor market and certain members of the FOMC (the Monetary Policy Committee, Editor’s note), of which Christopher Waller, will now request a drop in rate of 50 basis during the September 17 Committee. The annual revisions published on September 9 could make it possible to decide between a drop in the Fed of 25 and a decrease of 50 points,” Strategy and economic studies at CPRAM.
The macroeconomic menu was starred on Monday, let us quote the index felt of investors in the euro zone, which collapsed at -9.2, missing expectations.
On the front of values, Edenred (-3.65%) and Pluxee (-6.9%) were under pressure on the Paris Stock Exchange after the opening of a Turkish competition survey which aims for the two groups. Biomérieux lost 3.72%. On the side of small and medium capitalizations, Riber jumped 10.6% after winning an order for its Rosie system from an American company specializing in quantum computer science.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session of Monday in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.25%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.45%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.21% below 6,500 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1710. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.60. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.05%. As for the Vix, it was worth 15.11 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the NFIB index of small American businesses at 12:00 p.m. on Tuesday.
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7940.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7682.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
