by Diana Mandia

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European scholarships are expected up on Wednesday at the opening, brought by bets on a drop in interest rates by the American Federal Reserve (Fed) next week, while assimilating the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron, as French Prime Minister.

The term contracts on indices suggest an opening up 0.29% for the Parisian CAC 40, 0.31% for the Dax in Frankfurt and 0.09% for the FTSE in London. The Stoxx 600 should open on a gain of 0.2%.

The deterioration of American economic data, particularly in terms of employment, confirms investors in their conviction that the American central bank will decide to resume its interest rate decreases next week, thus stimulating the equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic.

The figures from the US Labor Department published on Tuesday show that the American economy created, during the 12 months until March, 911,000 less jobs than what had been estimated previously, a sign encouraging for the health of the first world economy which follows a series of indicators that are just as mixed since the summer.

The operators consider as acquired a reduction of a quarter of a point next Wednesday, and even bet at 7% on an exceptional relaxation of half a point, according to the Fedwatch tool of CME Group.

The latest obstacles to this prospect will present themselves on Wednesday and Thursday, with the publication of prices for production and consumption, respectively.

“An increase in inflation could slightly disrupt the situation and lead to a decrease in the probabilities of lower rates, not so much for September, but for the following months,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial analyst at Capital.com.

In the euro zone, the result of the two -day meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which begins on Wednesday, should be more certain, economists agree almost all of them planning a new rate maintenance.

In France, the markets will have the opportunity to react to the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu, current Minister of the Armed Forces and close to Emmanuel Macron, to the post of Prime Minister to replace François Bayrou, with the main mission of negotiating a budget for 2026.

The passage of power remains planned for this afternoon, the same day when the movement “blocks everything”, with fuzzy contours, calls to put France at the end of budget cuts.

In a note published Wednesday, analysts of Deutsche Bank underline the speed with which the Élysée has appointed the new head of government, while recalling that the task of having the budget approved by the National Assembly, which remains deeply divided, will not be easy for the new tenant of Matignon.

Safety fears are also likely to weigh while Poland said that they had deployed on Tuesday to Wednesday to its aerial defenses to destroy Russian drones that penetrated its air space after an attack in western Ukraine, marking the first time that Warsaws have been involved against Russian devices since the start of the war.

The values ​​to follow: [L5N3UW19L]

A Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange ended up on Tuesday, helped by the bets of a Fed rate drop.

The Dow Jones index won 0.43%, Standard & Poor’s 500, wider, took 0.27%and the Nasdaq Composite advanced on its side of 0.37%.

In Asia

In Japan, the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange increased by 0.79%, in the wake of Wall Street the day before.

In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 0.32% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations is advancing 0.43%, supported by inflation data published earlier during the day.

Consumer prices in the Asian giant have declined more than expected in August, while decision -makers at Beijing are trying to control excessive competition and price war in certain key industrial sectors.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange takes 1.3%.

RATE

The price of bonds of the US Treasury, an asset traditional refuge, fell back on Wednesday for the second consecutive day, pushing the upward yields.

The yield of Treasuries at ten years takes 1.4 base points at 4.0875%. The two years advances from 1 base point to 3.5520%.

In the euro zone, the yield of the German Bund at ten years fell from 1 base point to 2.6551%.

In France, the bond market remains calm after the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as a new French Prime Minister: the return of the OAT at ten years is almost unchanged at 3.4772% and that of the two -year obligation loses 1.2 basic points at 2.0521%.

Changes

The exchange market is also rather calm: the dollar loses 0.07% in the face of a basket of reference currencies, while the euro gains 0.06% at 1.1713 dollars.

OIL

Prices of oil continue to increase after Tuesday’s Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar, and geopolitical concerns will remain at the center of attention, after Poland mobilized its own air defenses and those of NATO to shoot down Russian drones having penetrated its airspace overnight.

Brent took 0.92% at 67.00 dollars per barrel and light American crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.97% at 63.24 dollars.

Main economic indicators at the September 10 agenda:

Pays GMT indicator previous consensus period

USA Production Prices (PPI) August

– Over one month 0.3% 0.9%

– Over one year 3.3%, 3%

(Written by Diana Mandia, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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