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Carried by Stellantis (+9.21%), and in the wake of the BCE Governor Council, the CAC has aligned a fourth row increase session (+0.80%), for a fence above 7,800 points.
Unsurprisingly, the powerful monetary institution based in Frankfurt has left its guiding rates unchanged.
“The ECB has maintained its rates at 2.00 %, reflecting stable inflation but lower growth signals. We consider that monetary policy remains generally neutral, which pleads in favor of short duration and quality defensive values ​​on the equity markets. The financial sector could undergo pressure if rate anticipations remain limited, while geopolitical and energy risks Particular attention, “synthesized David Zahn, head of European bond management at Franklin Templeton.
But the stake was elsewhere: the reaction of Ms. Lagarde, president of the Poverty Central Bank, to the budgetary and political situation in France, the second economic power of the Monetary Union.
“Although the president has not displayed excessive concern about the case of France, political instability, never far in Europe, adds a layer of complexity. The recent events in France recall that social and political tensions can quickly result in a rise in sovereign rates, equivalent to a de facto monetary tightening. A scenario which, if it was materialized, could possibly constrain the ECB to review the ECB Strategy “, deciphers Raphaël Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau Capital.
New major meeting for the markets this Friday for French debt. Unanswered on the capacity of the new Prime Minister to snatch a compromise on the 2026 budget, Fitch re -evaluates this evening the note of the French debt.
Raphaël Thuin, Director of capital market strategies at Tikehau Capital, warns: “The risk for France would consist of navigating the duration between political immobility and slow degradation of its economic fundamentals. If no brutal shock is expected in the short term, the accumulation of uncertainties could, in the medium term, weigh on its growth and its credibility. A stable government-as well as the patience of investors with regard to negative dynamics that erude the country’s credibility. “
The most important macroeconomic statistics of the week was published Thursday besides the Atlantic: these are CPIs, for consumer prices (Consumers’ Price Index), one of the most direct measures of inflation. No surprise, inflation increases, by +2.7% to +2.9% at an annual rate, for the widest product basket, therefore including food and energy. However, it was expected.
The day before the operators were already aware of an inflation indicator, with barometer value that, the prices for American production for the month of August. And against all expectations, the production price index (PPI) fell 0.1% while the consensus awaited an increase of 0.3%. They had increased by 0.7% in July.
Enough to pave the way more towards a drop in rates from September 17, already paved by J Powell from the Jackson Hole symposium, and consolidated after the publication of the last federal relationship on private employment health.
“This report on prices shows once again that customs duties have for the moment had only a very limited effect on American inflation. The great caution displayed by Jerome Powell this year on the subject now seems overwhelmed by the degradation of the labor market, which is very clear. The Fed will therefore be able to resume its calmly rate cycle”, notes Bastien Drut, responsible for strategy and economic studies.
On the front of values, Stellantis increased by 9.2%, supported by the encouraging remarks of its director general Antonio Filosa during “Kepler Cheuvreux Autumn Conference 2025”. Kering won 2.4% while the group reported an evolution of the shareholder pact binding it with Mayhoola, for the takeover of Valentino. On the SBF 120, Technip Energies resumed 2.9%, the market praised the acquisition of the Advanced Materials & Catalyst activity from Ecovyst, marking the group’s first major acquisition since 2021.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity index ended the session of Thursday in the green, like the Dow Jones (+1.36%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.72%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, increased from 0.85% to 6,587 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1720. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.03%. As for the Vix, it was worth 14.71 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority consumer prices in France at 8:45 am and the consumer confidence index (U-Mich, preliminary data) at 4:00 pm.
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7940.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7682.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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