EUR/USD: the greenback returns to land after the last statistics

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

Yesterday, the battery of American macroeconomic statistics on the program only strengthened the cautious approach of J Powell in its (very) progressive drop -down rate. The dollar took the opportunity to grab a little ground against the euro, sufficiently enough to break a support base in the form of an oblique right. Not enough to question the primary trend, strongly upwards, of the pair of currencies, but what in any case distill some questions on the technical front.

In detail, the final data of GDP in the second quarter, came out far beyond the previous estimates, at +3.8% in annualized pace, clearly marked the session. In addition, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, at 218,000 new units, have rather pleasantly surprised, as well as the dynamics of sustainable goods.

Recall that the Fed lowered its main key rate of 25 base points at the end of its September FOMC, while adopting a particularly cautious posture. Understand: the powerful financial institution will now have a “meeting by meeting” approach, by piloting its monetary policy according to statistical data. It is in this context that the PCE prices, which will be published this Friday at 2:30 p.m., will be particularly followed in market rooms. These personal consumption index are the favorite measure of the Fed in his appreciation of inflation.

The Patron of the Fed has “underlined the difficult position in which the Fed is found, with the challenge of reconciling upward inflation and weak growth in employment. These remarks come at a time when divergent opinions emerge within the institution as to the appropriate evolution of rates. Given these elements, we always anticipate a drop in progressive rates by the Fed in the coming months, notably promoting the obligations USD, “said Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1680 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The breakdown of the slaughtered oblique right drawn in black does not put, at this stage in any case, in doubt the power of the upward primary trend, but brings its batch of questioning on the need for consolidation of the pair of currencies. We again issue a neutral opinion on the Eurusd spot.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between the USD 1,1608 support and the resistance to 1,1835 USD.

Daily data graphics