by Mara Vilcu

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European scholarships are expected in the green on Monday at the opening, while investors are preparing for a possible partial closure of American federal administrations (“Shutdown”), which would delay the publication of the employment report for the month of September and a series of other key data.

According to the first indications available, the Parisian CAC 40 could gain 0.5% at the opening.

The term contracts report an increase of 0.41% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.39% for the FTSE in London and 0.49% for the Stoxx 600.

At the start of the week, all eyes turn to the United States. President Donald Trump will meet the main Democrats and Republicans of the Congress on Monday to discuss the extension of government funding.

Without agreement, a “Shutdown” would start on Wednesday, when new American customs duties on heavy goods vehicles, pharmaceutical products and many others will come into force, even if great confusion still reigns as for their exact scope and the question of whether the existing national agreements will prevail.

Prolonged closure could leave the American Federal Reserve (Fed) in uncertainty about the state of the economy when it meets on October 29.

“If the closure continues beyond the Fed meeting, it will be based on private data to make its political decisions,” according to Bofa analysts. “On the sidelines, we believe that this could reduce the probability of a decline in October, but only in a marginal way.”

Markets count on a probability of 90% of a drop in Fed rates in October, with approximately 65% ​​probability of another drop in December.

In addition, there are also many uncertainties as to the outcome of a meeting of American generals and admirals which will be held Tuesday in Quantico, Virginia, on the initiative of the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and in which the tenant of the White House should participate.

A Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange ended slightly on Friday after data on inflation in the United States generally in line with expectations and which have not called into question the anticipations of key rate cuts.

The Dow Jones index won 299.97 points, or 0.65%, at 46,247.29.

The wider S&P-500 took 38.98 points, or 0.59%, at 6,643.70.

The Nasdaq Composite has advanced 99.37 points (+0.44%) to 22,484.06.

In Asia

The Tokyo Stock Exchange decreases by 0.73%, moving away from record levels reached last week, while many actions lost their right to the dividend.

Chinese and Hong Kong actions are progressing on Monday, the titles of car manufacturers and companies in the solar energy sector that jumped after the measures taken by Beijing to end the price war began to have their effects.

In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 0.13% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations advances by 0.47%.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange advances 1.4%.

RATE

American yields drop on Monday.

The yield of ten -year -old Treasuries fell from 2.7 base points to 4,1600%. The two -year -old abandons 1.0 base points at 3.6369%.

Changes

The dollar is down on Monday, pending a series of American economic publications that could bring more clarity on the Fed rate trajectory, while the growing risk of stopping government activities in the United States was also at the center of attention.

The dollar loses 0.24% against a basket of reference currencies.

The euro earns 0.25% to $ 1.1730.

OIL

Oil prices drop Monday after the Iraqi Kurdistan region resumed its gross oil exports via Turkey over the weekend and OPEC+ has planned a new increase in oil production in November, increasing the world supply.

Brent loses 0.43% at 69.83 dollars per barrel and the American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) fell 0.61% to $ 65.32.

(Written by Mara Vîlcu, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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