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Still under pressure under the major technical level of the 7,940 points (resistance), the CAC 40 started the week timidly, grappling Monday 0.13% to 7,880 points. Investors digest the latest American inflation data published on Friday. The index Core PCE showed persistent inflation at +2.9% at an annual rate. And this against the backdrop of degradation of the employment market, to fulfill the equation of the Fed, which resumed on September 18 with great caution, its process of monetary easing.
On Thursday, the battery of American macroeconomic statistics on the program only strengthened the prudent approach of J Powell in its (very) progressive drop -down rate of guiding rates. “Good news is Bad News”, according to the stock market adage against intuitive.
In detail, the final data of GDP in the second quarter, came out far beyond the previous estimates, at +3.8% in annualized pace, clearly marked the session. In addition, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, at 218,000 new units, have rather pleasantly surprised, as well as the dynamics of sustainable goods.
“Tuesday evening, Jerome Powell warned against” too sustained “rate drops that would slip inflation. According to him, interest rates are currently” at the right level to react to potential economic developments “. The 25 BPS drop [le 18/09] Was presented as a “precaution” drop to allow the American economy to find it and avoid too much degradation of the labor market “, lights up Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.
The market has avoided too marked initiatives in the absence of obvious catalysts. The risk of a “Shutdown”, that is to say the closure of American federal services, was also able to penalize the trend.
“The absence of a budget agreement at the Congress could provoke a federal ‘Shutdown’ on October 1. If the macro impact (economic, editor’s note) is historically limited, uncertainty could destabilize confidence and accentuate volatility,” explains John Plassard, of Cité Gestion.
A “Shutdown” would have the collateral effect of the postponement of the monthly report on the programmed American employment (for the time being) on ​​Friday.
In the values ​​department, luxury behaved well. At the top of the CAC 40, Kering won 4.7%, Hermès, 2.4%, and LVMH 1.4%. In a note published this Monday, UBS noted its course objectives on Kering and LVMH upstream of the next publication season. Red lantern of CAC 40, Totalenergies fell 2.2% after unveiling its strategy and growth prospects during an investor day organized in New York. The plans unveiled this Monday “report modest changes and suggest that Totalenergies could find it difficult to maintain its debt ratio below 20% while respecting its plans, unless the prices of raw materials are maintained at current levels,” said Royal Bank of Canada. Exoseens increased by 3.3% after announcing a “major” order from the Spanish army.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on equity nibbled a few points on Monday, like the Dow Jones (+0.15%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.48%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.26% at 6,661 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market:
> The single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1740.
> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63.10.
> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, were negotiated slightly above 4.14%.
> As for the Vix, it was worth 16.12 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority real estate data at 3:00 p.m. in the United States. At 4:00 p.m. investors will follow the new job offers (JOLTS) and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board).
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.
The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy. This level (7,940 points) constitutes a major resistance. The index multiplies the candles with high pronounced wick on its approach.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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