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The CAC 40, in the red a good part of the session, managed to reverse the steam during the American exchanges, while the threat of a new shutdown weighs on the appetite for risk.
As a reminder, the shutdown designates means the end of a large part of the federal services in the event of the absence of a budget agreement. These non -essential services will stop this Wednesday, parliamentarians who failed in their attempted agreement before the deadline of September 30.
“First of all on the political question, if republican and democrats do not manage to find a compromise on budgetary issues, we will witness a new Shutdown. Even if it is a recurring political show in the United States, which sometimes ends at the last moment, we have the feeling that the officials of both sides are not really pressed to find an agreement, despite the approach of the deadline.” Baradez (IG France).
The publication of the US employment report, scheduled for Friday, could suffer from it and thus be postponed. Operators, however, have job bearings this week, whatever happens, with the news of JOLTS jobs, the survey of the HR AdP firm or the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits.
“In recent years, these blockages have been avoided with compromises. Given the existing animosity today between the two parties, the risk is high of a suspension of the activities of certain services (…) which would leave the markets in the vagueness. Obviously the more this dead end, the more negative for the economy,” commented LBPAM economists.
Not enough to cause an earthquake on the markets, but we are not immune to some tactical reallocization movements from a fringe of managers. And the very hard active ingredients can suffer punctually.
On the openings in the United States Jolts), they proved to be higher than expectations. In the United States, the number of job offers increased to 7.227 million in August, much more than the 7.185 million openings expected by consensus, and after 7.208 million in July. On the other hand, consumer confidence in the United States fell more than scheduled in September, 94.2 against 97.8 in August, according to the monthly conference board survey.
On the side of the values, Totalenergies still restores 2.5% leaded by the orientation of oil prices. The market is indeed counting on a new increase in production quotas for the organization of oil exporting countries and its allies (OPEC+) in November. The December contract on the Brent de Mer du Nord loses 1.15% at 66.32 Dollars per barrel while that of November on the WTI listed in New York abandons 1.2% to 62.70 Dollars per barrel. Excluding CAC 40, Valneva jumped 8.3% thanks to reassuring clinical data on its chikungunya vaccine.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares grabbed a few points, like the Dow Jones (+0.18%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.30%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.41% at 6,688 points.
A point on other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning
> On the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1750.
> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.40.
> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, were negotiated slightly above 4.16%.
> As for the Vix, it was worth 16.28 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the final data of PMI manufacturers in the euro zone at 10:00 am, in priority, to follow inflation data in the Monetary Union at 11:00 am, as well as the results of the Private Human Resources Firm Survey DP on employment at 2:30 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.
The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy. This level (7,940 points) constitutes a major resistance. The index multiplies the candles with high pronounced wick on its approach.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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