EUR/USD: a Shutdown for the moment without effect on exchange

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The statistical data was rather reassuring in nature, with regard to consensus in any case, on this side of the Atlantic this morning. The Shutdown, that is to say the cessation of non-essential federal services for lack of agreement on the budget in the Senate, has for its by only an impact for the limited time, if not zero, in the risky asset markets.

First of all, the German component of the September Manufacturer PMI of September 48.5 in the first estimate, is finally revised at 49.5 in final data. Recall that the “score” is still below 50 points, which separates a contraction from an expansion of the sector considered. In addition, updated estimates of consumer prices in the euro zone are confirmed at +2.3% in annual rate, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco.

“In the United States, the federal government has closed its doors last night, due to a budgetary compromise between the Republicans and the Democrats in the Congress,” notes Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.

A first consequence, very real for market rooms, is the possible postponement of the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report, Federal Report on Employment Health scheduled for Friday. However, he is very, much awaited. Especially since the last NFP (that of August, therefore), had sounded the alarm, showing a clear degradation of employment health, especially in terms of job creation. It is partly this statistic that had encouraged the Fed to take up, with caution, its monetary easing process.

“Displaying a rare unity, the Democrats insist that the project understands the maintenance of affordable health care as part of the Obamacare, a program which concerns 24 million Americans. For its part, the White House has brandished the threat of a wave of massive and permanent layoffs in government agencies.”

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1745 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The breakdown of the slaughtered oblique right drawn in black does not put, at this stage in any case, in doubt the power of the upward primary trend, but brings its batch of questioning on the need for consolidation of the pair of currencies. We again issue a neutral opinion on the Eurusd spot, wisely positioned in the heart of the Bollinger bands (20; 2.5).

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between the USD 1,1608 support and the resistance to 1,1835 USD.

Daily data graphics