(News Bulletin 247) – The euro continued its short-term upward movement against the dollar, in an environment that was not conducive to risk taking, in particular with a rise in crude oil prices following a misleading reflux. Geopolitics, macroeconomics, and monetary policies remain at the heart of forex traders’ screens.
Following Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul, Moscow undertook to drastically reduce its military activity in kyiv and Cherniguiv. But the latter was the target of bombing “all night”, according to the governor of the region, despite Russian promises.
Furthermore, Mrs. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, continued to support an economic scenario of stagflation for the Euro Zone in the months to come. During a conference organized by the Cypriot Central Bank, Ms Lagarde spoke of the growing probabilities of high inflation associated with sluggish growth, at the very moment when the economic rebound post health crisis is threatened in its dynamics by the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine.
In terms of statistics, the operators have made up with the new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States, which emerged beyond expectations before the monthly federal report on Friday, and the survey by the ADP firm on Wednesday. As for the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), it came out at a level in line with expectations at 107.2. To follow in priority, on the agenda this Wednesday, the investigation of the private firm in human resources ADP at 2:15 p.m. as well as the stocks of crude oil across the Atlantic at 4:30 p.m.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against around $1.1160.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
As long as the spot quotes above $1.10, the supply of oxygen is assured. On this side, there is no lack of technical arguments to justify the taking of selling positions. In the immediate future and in the absence of an interesting chart entry point, traders will avoid exposure. Regarding the substantive work matrix, it remains unchanged. The transition phase between February 4 and 23, in the form of a slip without federation, under the 100-day moving average (in orange) is over. The underlying bearish bias aligns with the short term, and the plot of a candle conspicuous by its red body on Thursday 2/24 illustrates the firm grip of the selling side. With 5 red-bodied candles from March 1 to 7, and continued selling mobilization in week 09, the picture remains gloomy.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.1000 USD and the resistance at 1.1260 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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