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After luxury on Wednesday, it was diplomacy which reinforced the buying desires of operators on Thursday, with the CAC gaining 1.38% to 8,188 points, a handful of points from its historical records. All in a dissipation, at least for the moment, of the specter of budgetary paralysis in France.
The Lecornu 2 government faced two motions of censure this morning, one tabled by the RN, the other by LFI. These two motions were successively rejected. “The debates had to be able to start, and they will start,” Sébastien Lecornu briefly declared.
The CAC ended exactly on its high points of the session, while a telephone exchange between Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin was in progress, on the eve of the meeting of the American president with the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.
As for trade tensions, “US Treasury Secretary (Scott) Bessent yesterday issued some positive signals, giving hope that the additional 100% customs duties imposed on China would ultimately not be applied,” explains Deutsche Bank.
Scott Bessent “said that to his knowledge, President Trump was ready to meet with President Xi this month. He also suggested that the United States could extend the trade truce if China did not continue its plan to control exports of rare earths”, observes the German bank.
On the value side, spirits continued their good performances from the day before, like Pernod Ricard (+4.15%) and Remy Cointreau (+4.24%). The quarterly copy of the first reassured, despite a plunge of 14.3% in its revenues in the first quarter of its staggered 2025-2026 financial year.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices finished in the red like the Dow Jones (-0.65%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.47%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, depreciated by 0.63% to 6,629 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 this morning
> On the foreign exchange market the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1720.
> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $56.80.
> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield on federal sovereign bonds maturing in 10 years, were trading slightly above the 3.95%.
> As for the VIX, it was worth 20.30 at the last close of the S&P500.
On the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, priority will be given to final consumer price data in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
While the CAC had just overcome major resistance, on a wide gap (October 2), the session of October 6 changed the situation. The gap mentioned, although large and formed on either side of the 8,000 points, can no longer be described as a rupture gap (breakaway gap). Which strongly calls into question the scenario of an immediate bullish extension towards 8,260 points.
The session of Friday October 10, by its acceleration of prices and its closing at its lowest, even suggests the scenario of a false exit, and therefore of a reintegration of the tidy between 7,500 and 7,940 points. But the gap of October 15 blurred the graphic message delivered.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 8260.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7940.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
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